Colorado vs. Oregon

[Katzenfreund]

41-36 Colorado lead at halftime.

If Oregon loses, Arizona can secure third place with a win over ASU. Should the Ducks beat Colorado, they'll finish third after beating Utah.

[scumdevils86]

anything to not play ucla again

[UofA_Elite]

wouldn't Colorado have the tiebreaker over us if we both went 13-5? We split the season and they have the better mark against the assumed #1 team Washington...

[smashmode]

wouldn't Colorado have the tiebreaker over us if we both went 13-5? We split the season and they have the better mark against the assumed #1 team Washington...

I think that is the tiebreaker

[ZONACAT]

So need Colorado to lose to Oregon State.

[UofA_Elite]

I think that is the tiebreaker

so even if CU wins we could end up at #4 opposite #5 Oregon

[CatsbyAZ]

Man, that floor...

[Katzenfreund]

Forgot about Cal's loss against Colorado. On the other hand UCLA seems to be p*ssed off enough to finish the Huskies on Saturday. Cal will beat Furd.

[ZONACAT]

Colorado can't win on the road.

[ZONACAT]

Meanwhile, UCLA is playing their best basketball of the year.

[UofA_Elite]

Looks like we'll wind up as a 4 seed

[BearDown89]

Man, that floor...

It's definitely weird to look at, but it's not as bad as the stupid blue turf. That arena is really nice though.

[azcat34]

Looks like we'll wind up as a 4 seed

That's a good thing, facing this Colorado team away from Boulder is a good thing.

[UofA_Elite]

That's a good thing, facing this Colorado team away from Boulder is a good thing.

unless we face #5 UCLA

[PieceOfMeat]

colorado is done

[azcat34]

unless we face #5 UCLA

I don't see UCLA beating UW right now.

Oregon is playing great ball right now, Joseph was a huge addition.

[Main Event]

So Colorado it is

[CalStateTempe]

so is this good or bad for the cats tonight ?

[UofA_Elite]

So Colorado it is

unless UCLA beats UW and Colorado loses at OSU

hope we draw CU

[TucsonDon]

If Berkeley loses at Stanford, and UW beats UCLA, it'd be the following:

1 Washington
2 Cal
3 Arizona
4 Oregon
5 Colorado
6 UCLA
7 Stanford

[PieceOfMeat]

If Berkeley loses at Stanford, and UW beats UCLA, it'd be the following:

1 Washington
2 Cal
3 Arizona
4 Oregon
5 Colorado
6 UCLA
7 Stanford

Wouldn't OU be ahead of us(AZ)? since they beat us?

[Main Event]

Colorado trying to make this interesting

[slccat]

If Berkeley loses at Stanford, and UW beats UCLA, it'd be the following:

1 Washington
2 Cal
3 Arizona
4 Oregon
5 Colorado
6 UCLA
7 Stanford

Wouldn't Oregon be 3rd with the tiebreaker if they win on Saturday?

[TucsonDon]

Wouldn't OU be ahead of us(AZ)? since they beat us?
No...and actually, my standings are incorrect. Stanford would be 6th, UCLA 7th.

If Oregon, Cal and Arizona all end up 13-5, it's record against the other two, so Cal would be 2nd (2-1), Arizona 3rd (1-1), Oregon 4th (1-2). CU would be 5th, and Stanford and UCLA would be tied in 6th. That tiebreaker would go to Stanford because they only lost once to UW (0-1) while UCLA would've lost twice.

[PieceOfMeat]

No...and actually, my standings are incorrect. Stanford would be 6th, UCLA 7th.

If Oregon, Cal and Arizona all end up 13-5, it's record against the other two, so Cal would be 2nd (2-1), Arizona 3rd (1-1), Oregon 4th (1-2). CU would be 5th, and Stanford and UCLA would be tied in 6th. That tiebreaker would go to Stanford because they only lost once to UW (0-1) while UCLA would've lost twice.

Ah, I missed that it was a 3 way tie. My bad.

I'd love to end up 3rd, with cal 2nd, and facing furd in the first game

[SCCat]

anything to not play ucla again

Totally with ya. I'm fairly worried we'll end up as the 3 and UCLA will end up as the 6 and we'll have to play them on Thursday in LA.

[UofA_Elite]

Ah, I missed that it was a 3 way tie. My bad.

I'd love to end up 3rd, with cal 2nd, and facing furd in the first game

yes please. I'm still confused though

[SCCat]

Ah, I missed that it was a 3 way tie. My bad.

I'd love to end up 3rd, with cal 2nd, and facing furd in the first game

That would be one of the best scenarios: no UCLA on Thursday (if we meet UCLA in the semis...well what can you do) and no UW till the finals.

No UCLA on Thursday
No UW on Friday

That would be good.

[UofA_Elite]

ok so Stanford would be 6 and UCLA 7 if they tie at 10-8 because Stanford beat Cal in this hypothetical, right? Then we'd be 3rd because of the common opponents with Cal & UO. Therefore we play 3/6 with Furd, 2/3 with Cal and avoid a-hole UW/UCLA. Got it, right?

[TucsonDon]

Ah, I missed that it was a 3 way tie. My bad.

I'd love to end up 3rd, with cal 2nd, and facing furd in the first game
I actually think Colorado loses in Corvegas on Saturday. UW/UCLA is tough to call. Bruins prolly should've won up there last month (you could say that about a lot of UCLA's road games this year), and trusting Washington on the road is just ignorant. Still, UW is a lot quicker and more athletic than UCLA. Stanford/Cal is a toss-up to me as well.

Gun to my head, UCLA over UW, Cal over Stanford, OSU over CU, UO over Utah, UA over ASU, which would yield...

1) Berkeley
2) Washington
3) Oregon
4) Arizona
5) UCLA
6) Colorado
7) Stanford

[PieceOfMeat]

yes please. I'm still confused though

the pac is confusing this year

That would be one of the best scenarios: no UCLA on Thursday (if we meet UCLA in the semis...well what can you do) and no UW till the finals.

No UCLA on Thursday
No UW on Friday

That would be good.

would be great

ok so Stanford would be 6 and UCLA 7 if they tie at 10-8 because Stanford beat Cal in this hypothetical, right? Then we'd be 3rd because of the common opponents with Cal & UO. Therefore we play 3/6 with Furd, 2/3 with Cal and avoid a-hole UW/UCLA. Got it, right?

I believe that's it, per don's scenario

[97cats]

No...and actually, my standings are incorrect. Stanford would be 6th, UCLA 7th.

If Oregon, Cal and Arizona all end up 13-5, it's record against the other two, so Cal would be 2nd (2-1), Arizona 3rd (1-1), Oregon 4th (1-2). CU would be 5th, and Stanford and UCLA would be tied in 6th. That tiebreaker would go to Stanford because they only lost once to UW (0-1) while UCLA would've lost twice.

thx for posting that, i was wondering what the breaker was.

question, does Virginia have to win its next two? Maryland scares me after the loss to FSU at home if im Tony Bennett.

i'm not that impressed with the power conf as a whole. i think its a bunch of sh*t in the bottom thirds, save maybe the Big-10and the bottom is bad there too; what makes the Pac-12 any different at this point in the season? they have 3 to 4 ok teams, no great ones, but playing some good basketball down the stretch.

love to hear you opinion. do you see 2, 3, or 4 teams from the Pac-12 given the last week?

[TucsonDon]

ok so Stanford would be 6 and UCLA 7 if they tie at 10-8 because Stanford beat Cal in this hypothetical, right? Then we'd be 3rd because of the common opponents with Cal & UO. Therefore we play 3/6 with Furd, 2/3 with Cal and avoid a-hole UW/UCLA. Got it, right?
Stanford would be 6th because their record against 1st place UW would be 0-1, while UCLA's record against 1st place UW would be 0-2.

[Reydituto]

If Cal loses, UA wins and Oregon wins out, all 3 teams would be 13-5, T2nd in the Pac-12.

First tiebreaker is H2H, even if it's more than 2 teams tied, which means collective H2H:

Cal - Beat Oregon 2x, lost to UA => 2-1 (.666)
UA - Beat Cal, lost to Oregon => 1-1 (.500)
UO - Beat UA, lost 2x to Cal => 1-2 (.333)

Now, some read this as Cal gets 2nd, and then the the same tiebreaker is reapplied to just UA and Oregon, which puts Oregon in 3rd and UA 4th since Oregon beat UA.

My reading of the Pac-12 tiebreaking procedures, which are posted elsewhere on this board, is that the first tiebreaker settles all ties among the tied teams at once, that you don't choose one tiebreaker winner and then recompare the remaining teams with the same tiebreaker, and that you only get to the second tiebreaker if more than two teams are still tied. Which would mean, seeing the records above, that since UA has a better record against BOTH Cal and Oregon that Oregon does against BOTH UA and Cal, that UA would be 3rd, and Oregon 4th.

My reading could be wrong, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that it would be.

Really though, what it tells me is how much I hate the unbalanced schedule.


EDIT: Or, what TD said.

[PieceOfMeat]

I actually think Colorado loses in Corvegas on Saturday. UW/UCLA is tough to call. Bruins prolly should've won up there last month (you could say that about a lot of UCLA's road games this year), and trusting Washington on the road is just ignorant. Still, UW is a lot quicker and more athletic than UCLA. Stanford/Cal is a toss-up to me as well.

Gun to my head, UCLA over UW, Cal over Stanford, OSU over CU, UO over Utah, UA over ASU, which would yield...

1) Berkeley
2) Washington
3) Oregon
4) Arizona
5) UCLA
6) Colorado
7) Stanford

Yeah, I'd much prefer that first scenario you posted over this one.

[Katzenfreund]

Tie breaking procedures for determining all tournament seeding

1. Two-team tie
a. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular season.
b. Each team’s record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the regular season standings, and then continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure), rather than the performance against individual tied teams.
c. Won-lost percentage against all Division I opponents.
d. Coin toss conducted by the Commissioner or designee.

2. Multiple-team tie
a. Results of collective head-to-head competition during the regular season among the tied teams.
b. If more than two teams are still tied, each of the tied team’s record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the regular season standings, and then continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure), rather than the performance against individual tied teams. If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure will be applied.
c. Won-lost percentage against all Division I opponents.
d. Coin toss conducted by the Commissioner or designee.

[UofA_Elite]

this is more difficult than anything I've done in any course this semester.

[PieceOfMeat]

Really though, what it tells me is how much I hate the unbalanced schedule.


With ya there, hate it.

[PieceOfMeat]

this is more difficult than anything I've done in any course this semester.

:lol2:

[97cats]

this is more difficult than anything I've done in any course this semester.

you're a student? awesome!!

[UofA_Elite]

you're a student? awesome!!

due to graduate in May

[97cats]

If Cal loses, UA wins and Oregon wins out, all 3 teams would be 13-5, T2nd in the Pac-12.

First tiebreaker is H2H, even if it's more than 2 teams tied, which means collective H2H:

Cal - Beat Oregon 2x, lost to UA => 2-1 (.666)
UA - Beat Cal, lost to Oregon => 1-1 (.500)
UO - Beat UA, lost 2x to Cal => 1-2 (.333)

Now, some read this as Cal gets 2nd, and then the the same tiebreaker is reapplied to just UA and Oregon, which puts Oregon in 3rd and UA 4th since Oregon beat UA.

My reading of the Pac-12 tiebreaking procedures, which are posted elsewhere on this board, is that the first tiebreaker settles all ties among the tied teams at once, that you don't choose one tiebreaker winner and then recompare the remaining teams with the same tiebreaker, and that you only get to the second tiebreaker if more than two teams are still tied. Which would mean, seeing the records above, that since UA has a better record against BOTH Cal and Oregon that Oregon does against BOTH UA and Cal, that UA would be 3rd, and Oregon 4th.

My reading could be wrong, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that it would be.

Really though, what it tells me is how much I hate the unbalanced schedule.


EDIT: Or, what TD said.

this is interesting to me. thx!!

[97cats]

due to graduate in May

man, if i could just go back in time, i'd take state.

[77HoyaCat4Ever]

due to graduate in May

Congrats!

Major?

[UofA_Elite]

you're a student? awesome!!

yeah, I'd like to stay longer but I'm already a 5th year Sr. :lol2:

Congrats!

Major?

Thanks, English major

[dc4azcats]

yeah, I'd like to stay longer but I'm already a 5th year Sr. :lol2:



Thanks, English major

Congrats and thanks again for all of the effort you've put forth in The Official Bubble Watch Thread. Bear Down!!

[UofA_Elite]

Congrats and thanks again for all of the effort you've put forth in The Official Bubble Watch Thread. Bear Down!!

no prob, I enjoy it... Go Cats!

[97cats]

hes all grows up.

i look forward to more terrific contributions over the yrs. best new poster in some time, imo.

[SCCat]

yeah, I'd like to stay longer but I'm already a 5th year Sr.

The best piece of advice I could probably give you is...don't let being there for five years already stop you. There are certainly some good 500 level english courses you could take in work towards a Master that you may or may not finish if you know what I mean. The 40 years of work in front of you will be there next year too.

You'll thank me later.

[UofA_Elite]

The best piece of advice I could probably give you is...don't let being there for five years already stop you. There are certainly some good 500 level english courses you could take in work towards a Master that you may or may not finish if you know what I mean. The 40 years of work in front of you will be there next year too.

You'll thank me later.

Oh, I've thought this through. Start grad school with no real intention of finishing. Maybe stall for a year while my gf finds a six-figure job. Be charming enough to make her keep me around and get away with internet bubble-watching on a blog that gets minimal traffic and roughly 74 cents/day on pay-per click ads. Take care of the dog.

[TucsonDon]

thx for posting that, i was wondering what the breaker was.

question, does Virginia have to win its next two? Maryland scares me after the loss to FSU at home if im Tony Bennett.

i'm not that impressed with the power conf as a whole. i think its a bunch of sh*t in the bottom thirds, save maybe the Big-10and the bottom is bad there too; what makes the Pac-12 any different at this point in the season? they have 3 to 4 ok teams, no great ones, but playing some good basketball down the stretch.

love to hear you opinion. do you see 2, 3, or 4 teams from the Pac-12 given the last week?

I've been reading around that Virginia is in trouble. I don't buy it. RPI still sub-40, three point losses @ FSU, @ Duke, home to FSU and UNC. So they're the 4th best team in the ACC. Double-digit wins @ Oregon, home to Michigan, neutral over Drexel.

Even if they lose @ Maryland, they're still 7-6 against the top 100. They'll play either Miami or NC State in the 1st round in Atlanta. I think they can probably even lose that one and still get in. Obviously that's not ideal, but 21-10 with a sub-50 RPI should be enough. I get that it'd be losing 6-of-8, 7-of-10 down the stretch but they look like a tournament team when you watch them, and I assume that's what these committee members are doing these days.

Speaking of looking like a tournament team, Oregon certainly does. I think (hope) they get in. I think they will with one win inside Staples. I'm hoping they don't have to play UCLA on Thursday, and I'm hoping the same for Arizona. I think the Bruins win Wednesday, and win Thursday (regardless of opponent). Beyond that I think they're done.

For Arizona, I think they need two wins in the conference tournament to feel good. They've played the easiest schedule (according to the RPI) within the league, and honestly, if the committee is actually watching its bubble teams, Arizona has not been impressive despite the winning during the second half of the season (excluding that great trip to the Bay). If their opponents make free throws (Wazzu, UCLA), we're not even having this discussion.

I think UW and Cal are in already. I can't really see a scenario where either doesn't get in.

So...to answer your question, as we know conference affiliation doesn't really matter. But I think Oregon and/or Arizona may very well be competing with each other for a spot, and right now, I would take Oregon ahead of AZ. Both have work to do starting next week, and they wouldn't have to play each other until the final barring something unforeseen this weekend.

As a fan of both schools, I'm rooting against teams like Penn, Fullerton, UCSB, VCU, Tulsa, Manhattan, Northern Iowa, Tennessee State, South Dakota State, LMU, Arkansas-Little Rock and Denver. Those are all schools in leagues that will have at least one school that's going to get in regardless of whether they lose in their conference tournament.

Edit...I'll say that Oregon also needs two wins at Staples to feel good. If I'm Oregon, and I'm out before the final, I'm damn nervous on Sunday. That's how I feel about Arizona as well.

[97cats]

I've been reading around that Virginia is in trouble. I don't buy it. RPI still sub-40, three point losses @ FSU, @ Duke, home to FSU and UNC. So they're the 4th best team in the ACC. Double-digit wins @ Oregon, home to Michigan, neutral over Drexel.

Even if they lose @ Maryland, they're still 7-6 against the top 100. They'll play either Miami or NC State in the 1st round in Atlanta. I think they can probably even lose that one and still get in. Obviously that's not ideal, but 21-10 with a sub-50 RPI should be enough. I get that it'd be losing 6-of-8, 7-of-10 down the stretch but they look like a tournament team when you watch them, and I assume that's what these committee members are doing these days.

Speaking of looking like a tournament team, Oregon certainly does. I think (hope) they get in. I think they will with one win inside Staples. I'm hoping they don't have to play UCLA on Thursday, and I'm hoping the same for Arizona. I think the Bruins win Wednesday, and win Thursday (regardless of opponent). Beyond that I think they're done.

For Arizona, I think they need two wins in the conference tournament to feel good. They've played the easiest schedule (according to the RPI) within the league, and honestly, if the committee is actually watching its bubble teams, Arizona has not been impressive despite the winning during the second half of the season (excluding that great trip to the Bay). If their opponents make free throws (Wazzu, UCLA), we're not even having this discussion.

I think UW and Cal are in already. I can't really see a scenario where either doesn't get in.

So...to answer your question, as we know conference affiliation doesn't really matter. But I think Oregon and/or Arizona may very well be competing with each other for a spot, and right now, I would take Oregon ahead of AZ. Both have work to do starting next week, and they wouldn't have to play each other until the final barring something unforeseen this weekend.

As a fan of both schools, I'm rooting against teams like Penn, Fullerton, UCSB, VCU, Tulsa, Manhattan, Northern Iowa, Tennessee State, South Dakota State, LMU, Arkansas-Little Rock and Denver. Those are all schools in leagues that will have at least one school that's going to get in regardless of whether they lose in their conference tournament.

love him or hate him, thats a really insightful take. thx again for answering.

few things, Arizona winning 7 of 8 with the chance of 9 of 11 at worst if they lose in the semis (this is assuming they beat ASU and win in the quarter), i cant see them being left out with 13 conf wins and 23 overall with an 7-3 true road record playing that well down the stretch. remember, that stretch included the Bay Area.

so i guess the only thing i disagree with is that if Arizona wins its next 2, combined with all the others giving them back while they have sat idle, i think they are in.

two wins in the Conf Tourny would be better tho.... Kenpom and Saragin are kind to Arizona this yr, that means something.

as for Oregon, i am impressed with how well coached they are. they shoot really well and can run solid half court offense. their road record isnt as good as Arizona's but if they show strong in LA i think they make a sloid solid case.

im kind of warming up to the idea of 4 Pac-12 teams....as the season has worn on that has seemed less and less rediculous.

Cal & UW are good teams, and Arizona & Oregon are solid too.

[azcat34]

If Arizona's opponents made their free throws is not a good argument to make your point.

If Arizona made their free throws they could be 17-1 in conference right now. It doesn't matter.

[97cats]

also, my take on Virgina losing tonight is significant only if the lose their next two.

otherwise, they are safe

[Olsondogg]

Oh man, my Arizona/Oregon final in the PAC tourney may come true...for the right to dance!!


Although both will make it. 4 PAC teams in.

[TucsonDon]

If Arizona's opponents made their free throws is not a good argument to make your point.

If Arizona made their free throws they could be 17-1 in conference right now. It doesn't matter.
A tournament team shouldn't be normal free throw percentages by opponents away from losing to UCLA at home, or Washington State anywhere at this point in the season. Committee isn't going to like that. Fwiw, Sean Miller deserves a lot of credit for this even being a discussion. When you watch this team, there isn't a sense that they should be up for consideration, but they keep finding ways to win. He deserves a lot of recognition for what they've accomplished.

love him or hate him, thats a really insightful take. thx again for answering.

few things, Arizona winning 7 of 8 with the chance of 9 of 11 at worst if they lose in the semis (this is assuming they beat ASU and win in the quarter), i cant see them being left out with 13 conf wins and 23 overall with an 7-3 true road record playing that well down the stretch. remember, that stretch included the Bay Area.

so i guess the only thing i disagree with is that if Arizona wins its next 2, combined with all the others giving them back while they have sat idle, i think they are in.
two wins in the Conf Tourny would be better tho.... Kenpom and Saragin are kind to Arizona this yr, that means something.

as for Oregon, i am impressed with how well coached they are. they shoot really well and can run solid half court offense. their road record isnt as good as Arizona's but if they show strong in LA i think they make a sloid solid case.

im kind of warming up to the idea of 4 Pac-12 teams....as the season has worn on that has seemed less and less rediculous.

Cal & UW are good teams, and Arizona & Oregon are solid too.
I can't argue with you...I have no idea. I know I'm going to be very nervous if they lose next Friday. I'd feel much better if they make the final.

I think the draw here is integral (not to state the obvious). I wouldn't want UCLA again. I think a game against CU would be a gift, IMO. I don't like the draw in round #2 if its Berkeley, although losing to Berkeley on Friday wouldn't hurt their position with the committee too much, that is a fair point. What would hurt is if Oregon State makes a run (watch out for this, btw) or something like that and they get beat by them.

As for Oregon/Arizona, like I said I think they both have work to do. Oregon doesn't have a lot of good wins (nobody around here does) but they did win straight-up in Tucson, and if these are two of the last teams being considered, that's not a good thing to have sitting out there. The great part is, Arizona is in a position to control these things.

[Cats101]

Arizona and Oregon won't be compared unless Arizona loses in the quarters and Oregon makes the final IMO.

[Irish27]

This should clear everything up or confuse you more. :lol2:
http://azstarnet.com/sports/blogs/pascoe/wildcats-buffs-could-meet-again-in-pac--tourney/article_db516af2-6442-11e1-b962-001871e3ce6c.html

The Arizona Wildcats may be headed for a rubber match against Colorado in the Pac-12 Tournament quarterfinals.

After Thursday’s Pac-12 games played out as expected, with Oregon beating the Buffaloes, most scenarios suggest the Wildcats will face Colorado in one form or another, either as the No. 3, 4 or 5 seed (assuming Arizona or Colorado win any first-round games needed).

They won’t face each other, however, if Stanford can beat California and Washington beats UCLA.

The top four teams in the Pac-12 Tournament will receive byes for the first-round games on March 7 but the No. 4 team will match up with the 5-12 winner and the No. 3 will face the 6-11 winner in the quarterfinals on March 8.

Some more analysis, if you're interested:

 Unless Utah somehow wins at Oregon on Saturday, the Wildcats can no longer earn the No. 2 seed. That’s because Colorado’s loss to Oregon meant the Buffaloes cannot wind up in a three-way tie for second with UA and California (a tiebreaker that the Wildcats would have won based on their 2-1 record within that group.)

 The Wildcats would earn a No. 4 seed if the rest of the weekend plays out as expected, but could also earn a No. 3 or a No. 5.

 UA could face the Buffs if they are No. 3 and Colorado is No. 6 (assuming the Buffs beat No. 11 Utah in the first round), or if they are No. 4 and Colorado is No. 5 – or even if UA is No. 5 and Colorado is No. 4. Whatever team is No. 5 will be facing No. 12 USC in the first round, playing for the right to face No. 4 in the quarterfinals.

 The 3-6 scenario for UA-Colorado happens if Cal loses to Stanford, Colorado loses to Oregon State and all other games play out as expected: Washington would lose to UCLA but still finish first outright, Cal would earn the No. 2 by winning a three-way tiebreaker with Oregon and UA, and the Wildcats would be No. 3. Oregon would be fourth and UCLA would be No. 5 because it tied with Colorado at 10-8– and beat the Buffs head-to-head.

 One way UA and Colorado won’t meet is if Stanford beats Cal, Colorado beats Oregon State and Washington beats UCLA. In that scenario, Washington is No. 1 outright, Cal, UA and Oregon tie for second at 13-5 (with Cal winning that group, UA second and Oregon third). In that case, UA would be the No. 3 seed and Colorado would be No. 5 – and the Wildcats would face either UCLA, Stanford or Utah in the quarterfinals.

 If they lose at ASU, the Wildcats would be a No. 5 – unless Oregon State beats Colorado. If the Buffs beat OSU on Saturday, and UA loses to ASU, both teams would be tied at 12-5.

In that case, Colorado would win the tiebreaker. Since UA and Colorado are tied head-to-head, the second tiebreaker is record against the top teams in the standings on down. If the top team is Washington outright, Colorado is 1-0 and UA is 0-2 against the Huskies. If Washington and Cal end up tied (if UW loses to UCLA and Cal beats Stanford), Colorado would be 2-1 combined against those top teams and UA would be 1-2.

Even if Utah somehow beat Oregon, and the Ducks dropped into a three-way tie for third place with UA and Colorado at 12-6, Arizona would still get the No. 5 seed because it has the worst record against that group (1-2).

 UA could lose to ASU and still get the No. 4 seed if OSU beats Colorado. In that case, UA would face No. 5 UCLA if the Bruins beat Washington, or Colorado, if UCLA loses (assuming that UCLA or Colorado beats No. 12 USC loses in the first round...)

Read more: http://azstarnet.com/sports/blogs/pascoe/wildcats-buffs-could-meet-again-in-pac--tourney/article_db516af2-6442-11e1-b962-001871e3ce6c.html#ixzz1nxqPlBKB

[azgreg]

His 3 way tie scenario with Cal, Oregon, and Arizona is wrong. Cal would win the 3 way tie breaker with a 2-1 record in that group. Then it goes to a 2 way tie breaker and Oregon would win that one.

[pokinmik]

A tournament team shouldn't be normal free throw percentages by opponents away from losing to UCLA at home, or Washington State anywhere at this point in the season. Committee isn't going to like that.

You're right, every tournament team blows out every lesser opponent in the stretch run of the season.

[ZONACAT]

Arizona only played the easiest schedule in the league because they can't play themselves.

[Winger]

But I think Oregon and/or Arizona may very well be competing with each other for a spot, and right now, I would take Oregon ahead of AZ. Both have work to do starting next week, and they wouldn't have to play each other until the final barring something unforeseen this weekend.

Assuming UO and UA don't face each other in the tournament w/an UO win, if it comes down to UO and UA, UO will lose out based on OOC SOS. Happens every time. Regardless of what the teams "look" like lately.

A tournament team shouldn't be normal free throw percentages by opponents away from losing to UCLA at home, or Washington State anywhere at this point in the season. Committee isn't going to like that.

Committee doesn't look at things as specific as that.

[97cats]

And AZ's true road record, which will be 8-4 if they win at ASU.

[barringer97]

Also, Arizona has 5 (6?) losses that are less than 5 points? I can't imagine beating ASU, Colorado, then losing to UW and thinking we would be out.

[smashmode]

Also, Arizona has 5 (6?) losses that are less than 5 points? I can't imagine beating ASU, Colorado, then losing to UW and thinking we would be out.

Does the committee look at that? Serious question.

[Machina]

http://themeshaper.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/toolbox.jpg

[Lab notes]

Did the guy above really use the "Well if they made their free throws..." argument? I was reading his post and it was as if I was watching a Scorsese film, well put together, solid, and then all of a sudden a modern day National Lampoon Frat flick popped on.

"If they made their free throws"? Really, man? Arizona has missed more crucial free throws this season than I can ever remember. Works both ways. Terrible arguement, though.

[gumby]

Really though, what it tells me is how much I hate the unbalanced schedule.

Easy solution. End the Pac-12 tournament, which frees up time to play all teams twice, rather than some teams three times and some teams once.

We'd be playing the Oregons this week instead.

This would also end the need to determine tiebreakers, because there would no reason to break ties.

Get on it!

[TucsonDon]

Assuming UO and UA don't face each other in the tournament w/an UO win, if it comes down to UO and UA, UO will lose out based on OOC SOS. Happens every time. Regardless of what the teams "look" like lately.

Perhaps before in the true round-robin but now each team has different conference schedules. Oregon's conference SOS (granted before the Utah game tomorrow) is 103, Arizona's is 149. Their OOC RPI rankings are identical. The reason Oregon has a better RPI is because of the conference results, despite the fact that they'll most likely finish with the same record inside the league.

You're right, every tournament team blows out every lesser opponent in the stretch run of the season.





Committee doesn't look at things as specific as that.



Did the guy above really use the "Well if they made their free throws..." argument? I was reading his post and it was as if I was watching a Scorsese film, well put together, solid, and then all of a sudden a modern day National Lampoon Frat flick popped on.

"If they made their free throws"? Really, man? Arizona has missed more crucial free throws this season than I can ever remember. Works both ways. Terrible arguement, though.
Teams win and lose games because of free throws all the time. My point was that Arizona hasn't been playing all that well, while Oregon has. I sure hope the committee is actually watching these games, not just going based off a score.

[EndOfAnEra]

My point was that Arizona hasn't been playing all that well, while Oregon has. I sure hope the committee is actually watching these games, not just going based off a score.

:lol2: :lol2: :lol2: :lol2: :lol2: :lol2: :lol2:
This is why you're such a terrible poster TD:

Oregon
Jan 29 vs ORST L 76-71
Feb 2 @ UTAH W 79-68
Feb 4 @COLO L 72-71
Feb 9 vs. WASH W 82-57
Feb 11 vs. WSU W 78-69
Feb 16 @CAL L 86-83
Feb 19 @ STAN W 68-64
Feb 26 @ORST W 74-73

Losses vs. Oregon State (by 5), Colorado (by 1), and Cal (by 3). Wins vs. Utah(10), UW, (by 25), WSU (by 8), Furd(by 4), Oregon St (by 1 point).

How is that any different or better than:

Arizona
vs. UW L 69-67
@Cal W 78-74
@ STAN W 56-43
vs. Colorado W 71-57
vs. UTAH W 70-61
@ WSU W 76-72
@ UW L 79-70
vs. USC W 70-54
vs. fUCLA W 65-63

Losses vs. UW (by 2) and UW (by 9). Wins vs. Cal(by 4), Stanford(by 13), Colorado (by 14), Utah (by 9), WSU (by 4), USC (by 16), UCLA (by 2).

YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY PATHETIC.

[Machina]

To be fair, Arizona has not looked good in most of these games, especially UCLA

[EndOfAnEra]

To be fair, Arizona has not looked good in most of these games, especially UCLA

Hahhahahahahahaha, I'm sure your chicken-**** scared fan perspective has no effect on that observation. Point is, looking in a level-headed manner at the recent games for both teams shows absolutely nothing that indicates Oregon has been playing better.

[Machina]

Hahhahahahahahaha, I'm sure your chicken-**** scared fan perspective has no effect on that observation. Point is, looking in a level-headed manner at the recent games for both teams shows absolutely nothing that indicates Oregon has been playing better.

Dude, I am one of the most positive people and have been the most steady on the Cats the entire year (not too up pre-season, not down at all). I am just saying there have been stretches (first 12-15 minutes of USC, portions of UCLA, Utah first 35 minutes, Cal 2nd half) during our recent play that have not been as positive.

If the Cats can put the entire thing together for 40 minutes, they will be PAC-12 Tournament champs no doubt

[Olsondogg]

Dude, I am one of the most positive people and have been the most steady on the Cats the entire year (not too up pre-season, not down at all). I am just saying there have been stretches (first 12-15 minutes of USC, portions of UCLA, Utah first 35 minutes, Cal 2nd half) during our recent play that have not been as positive.

If the Cats can put the entire thing together for 40 minutes, they will be PAC-12 Tournament champs no doubt

To be tournament champs it would need to be closer to 120 minutes...not 40.

[EndOfAnEra]

Dude, I am one of the most positive people and have been the most steady on the Cats the entire year (not too up pre-season, not down at all). I am just saying there have been stretches (first 12-15 minutes of USC, portions of UCLA, Utah first 35 minutes, Cal 2nd half) during our recent play that have not been as positive.

If the Cats can put the entire thing together for 40 minutes, they will be PAC-12 Tournament champs no doubt

You don't realize how myopic your take is. I guarantee there's Duck fans saying the same things about their team to themselves.

Factually, there is nothing the past handful of games that has shown any difference in performance between UO and UA.

UO did not look good losing to OSU by 5 at home, but sure looked good beating Furd on the road by 4.

Arizona did not look good losing to UW by 2 at home, but sure looked good beating Furd by 13 on the road.

How is UO beating Utah by 11 any different than UA beating Utah by 9?

The whole idea is ridiculous. Quit while you're ahead and avoid joining the ranks of TD.

[MrBug708]

Arizona only played the easiest schedule in the league because they can't play themselves.

Doesnt an unbalanced schedule invalidate that?

[Machina]

You don't realize how myopic your take is. I guarantee there's Duck fans saying the same things about their team to themselves.

Factually, there is nothing the past handful of games that has shown any difference in performance between UO and UA.

UO did not look good losing to OSU by 5 at home, but sure looked good beating Furd on the road by 4.

Arizona did not look good losing to UW by 2 at home, but sure looked good beating Furd by 13 on the road.

How is UO beating Utah by 11 any different than UA beating Utah by 9?

The whole idea is ridiculous. Quit while you're ahead and avoid joining the ranks of TD.

Throughout the entire season, Oregon has played closer to their potential than Arizona has

[97cats]

first, Oregons OOC SOS is 123rd while AZ's is 65th. in those games AZ has a 9-4 record while Oregon is 8-3.

Arizona has an overall 7-4 road record that will go to 8-4 with a win Sunday while Oregon is 7-5 on the road overall.

where Oregon has benefited most, is playing a tougher Pac-12 Conf Schedule missing return games from the Arizona and LA schools. the extra three games they missed against ASU, SC, and UCLA helped their numbers while Arizona missing the return from the Bay Schools and the Oregon Trail hurt their Conf SOS.

Oregon' Pac-12 SOS is 103rd while AZ's is 149.

you cant control who you play in your own conference. Oregon will be rewarded for good wins in the Pac-12 as Arizona will be rewarded for winning 13 games too.

the rub comes in terms of what you can control, and in Oregon's case thats an OOC Schedule that ranks 58 slots behind AZ's. teams have been put on notice that they will be held accountable for the scheduling in the Non-Conf portion of the season, and will be docked merit for repeated home games and/or playing a soft slate of teams.

Oregon isnt terrible in this metric, but compared to Arizona they are far behind.

this is where i think most prognosticators are missing the boat inside the committee, and is where Arizona makes its mark.

all for not unless Arizona wins its next two games.

win next 2 = NCAA Tournament Bid

[Olsondogg]

If Oregon plays Arizona in the final of the tourney, both will dance.

[budd1e_lee]

Throughout the entire season, Oregon has played closer to their potential than Arizona has

Arizona's potential > Oregon's potential

[azgreg]

If you havn't played up to your potential by now I don't think you will.

[Machina]

Arizona's potential > Oregon's potential

Yes sir

[Machina]

If you havn't played up to your potential by now I don't think you will.

Arizona has, at times, and gets closer every game just about save Washington and portions of UCLA. It is putting it together for an entire game that the Cats are struggling with.

[EndOfAnEra]

Throughout the entire season, Oregon has played closer to their potential than Arizona has

Why don't you just come out and say what TD said was wrong?

The issue of potential maximization is not what was in question and you know that.

The issue was performance and you agree that there has been no differentiation despite what TD wishes.

[Lab notes]

If you havn't played up to your potential by now I don't think you will.

Actually, last season's team could not put together 40 minutes of potential maxed basketball. It wasn't until the Duke game, and even then the first half was not well played defensively, that Arizona put together its most complete game of the season.

I think our team can still improve. There is more there. They just need to get a couple in a row here and then hopefully with the pressure all but off, they can let loose. Play with smiles like Miles Simon '97, not scowls, like Simon '98.

[Reydituto]

His 3 way tie scenario with Cal, Oregon, and Arizona is wrong. Cal would win the 3 way tie breaker with a 2-1 record in that group. Then it goes to a 2 way tie breaker and Oregon would win that one.

No, it's not.

Look at the official tiebreaking procedures posted in this thread, then read my post again.

If Cal loses, UA wins and Oregon wins out, all 3 teams would be 13-5, T2nd in the Pac-12.

First tiebreaker is H2H, even if it's more than 2 teams tied, which means collective H2H:

Cal - Beat Oregon 2x, lost to UA => 2-1 (.666)
UA - Beat Cal, lost to Oregon => 1-1 (.500)
UO - Beat UA, lost 2x to Cal => 1-2 (.333)

Now, some read this as Cal gets 2nd, and then the the same tiebreaker is reapplied to just UA and Oregon, which puts Oregon in 3rd and UA 4th since Oregon beat UA.

My reading of the Pac-12 tiebreaking procedures, which are posted elsewhere on this board, is that the first tiebreaker settles all ties among the tied teams at once, that you don't choose one tiebreaker winner and then recompare the remaining teams with the same tiebreaker, and that you only get to the second tiebreaker if more than two teams are still tied. Which would mean, seeing the records above, that since UA has a better record against BOTH Cal and Oregon that Oregon does against BOTH UA and Cal, that UA would be 3rd, and Oregon 4th.



A tournament team shouldn't be normal free throw percentages by opponents away from losing to UCLA at home, or Washington State anywhere at this point in the season. Committee isn't going to like that.

First this argument is not only specious, because it cuts too many ways to be consistent, but it's just wrong:

- IF UCLA hits their season average of 66.2% vs. UA, it only nets them one more FT (12-18 instead of 11-18) and they still lose. Conversely, if UA approaches their average FT% in the last two minutes vs. UCLA (they went 2-6), that game isn't such a nail-biter

- The Wazzu game wasn't the entire Wazzu team missing FTs like they did against UW, it was one guy, Brock Motum, who went 10-18 (rest of the team was 5-6). Which, considering he carried Wazzu that night and most of his misses were within the last 5 mins, it's somewhat understandable. Besides, Motum's FT% is 72.9, which would've translated to 13/18 vs. UA, or 3 more FTs, while Wazzu's team FT% is 70.7%, which would've translated to 17/24 vs. UA, or 2 more FTs. Neither of which wins the game for Wazzu.

- UA's FT% is 69.8 for the season. IF they shoot their average vs. Oregon - which means 2 more made FTs, or 14-20 instead of 12-20 - they get to OT, have a decent chance of beating Oregon in OT at home and this thread doesn't even exist.

- Looking at the rest of UA's losses:

Opp ... Margin .Missed FTs
Miss St...-10....... 4
SDSU.......-4....... 3
Florida.....-6....... 4
'Zaga.....-11....... 1
UCLA.......-7....... 6
Oregon...-2....... 8
Colo.......-1....... 8
UW.........-2....... 8
UW..........-9....... 9


So one can argue that UA missing FTs cost them 3 losses and the chance at making 4 other games much closer. Looking at that also shows that aside from maybe the loss at UCLA, and maybe the home loss to Oregon, UA doesn't have any bad losses on their résumé from either an RPI or scoring margin standpoint.

Second, even IF you were actually correct about what you said, and IF the committee does get that esoteric - and you'd have to presume they actually see something like that, which isn't a guarantee - it's one of dozens of things the committee could look at, and they wouldn't place any more value on that construct than a host of other pieces of info, including the fact that 7 of 9 UA losses were by single digits (5 w/in 2 possessions), & the other 2 were by 10 & 11.

Assuming UO and UA don't face each other in the tournament w/an UO win, if it comes down to UO and UA, UO will lose out based on OOC SOS. Happens every time. Regardless of what the teams "look" like lately.

Yep. Part of what happened with UA vis a vis ASU a few years back.

I know the committee eliminated "last 10" or "last 12" from the official criteria, but I'm sure they still look at such things in trying to determine seedings and discern among potential invitees.

Committee doesn't look at things as specific as that.

Not officially, no. A committee member and/or one of the supporting statisticians could come across or put together something like that in researching a team, but most analysis is about what the team actually did, and what they could control.

Does the committee look at that? Serious question.

Indirectly, sure, it goes to the idea of "bad losses", and certainly much more than if UA had been "lucky" because two teams missed more FTs than their season average. Again, one of many factors they can look at.

Teams win and lose games because of free throws all the time. My point was that Arizona hasn't been playing all that well, while Oregon has. I sure hope the committee is actually watching these games, not just going based off a score.

Winning is winning though, beat ASU and UA has won 8 of the last 9 going into the tourney. UA may be winning in an uglier, defensive fashion this season, but they pass the eye test as a tough out for any tourney team.

Oregon's win over UW at home was really impressive, as was their win over UA in January, but really, they haven't been appreciably better than UA over the 2nd half of conference play, and in fact have lost one more game.

To be fair, Arizona has not looked good in most of these games, especially UCLA

You think Oregon doesn't have bad stretches of play in their games? They're not consistently great for 40 minutes either. Plus, as a UA fanatic, you're hypercritical, and too close to it to see the big picture.

You don't realize how myopic your take is. I guarantee there's Duck fans saying the same things about their team to themselves.

Factually, there is nothing the past handful of games that has shown any difference in performance between UO and UA.

This. It will come down to the Pac-12 Tourney to see if neither, either or both get into the NCAAs.

Throughout the entire season, Oregon has played closer to their potential than Arizona has

Arizona's potential > Oregon's potential

Point to budd1e_lee.

first, Oregons OOC SOS is 123rd while AZ's is 65th. in those games AZ has a 9-4 record while Oregon is 8-3.

Arizona has an overall 7-3 road record that will go to 8-4 with a win Sunday while Oregon is 7-5 on the road overall.

where Oregon has benefited most, is playing a tougher Pac-12 Conf Schedule missing return games from the Arizona and LA schools. the extra three games they missed against ASU, SC, and UCLA helped their numbers while Arizona missing the return from the Bay Schools and the Oregon Trail hurt their Conf SOS.

Oregon' Pac-12 SOS is 103rd while AZ's is 149.

you cant control who you play in your own conference. Oregon will be rewarded for good wins in the Pac-12 as Arizona will be rewarded for winning 13 games too.

the rub comes in terms of what you can control, and in Oregon's case thats an OOC Schedule that ranks 58 slots behind AZ's. teams have been put on notice that they will be held accountable for the scheduling in the Non-Conf portion of the season, and will be docked merit for repeated home games and/or playing a soft slate of teams.

Oregon isnt terrible in this metric, but compared to Arizona they are far behind.

this is where i think most prognosticators are missing the boat inside the committee, and is where Arizona makes its mark.

Good analysis 97, and thanks for the statistical clarification on actual SOS numbers.

If you havn't played up to your potential by now I don't think you will.

You're probably right!

Sincerely,

The 1997 National Champion Arizona Wildcats

























(Hate to break that out, and it isn't a comparison, but it makes the point that teams often don't play to their potential until the end of the season or post-season)

[Winger]

I can't get past the impression that the "Arizona hasn't looked good" crowd is a bunch of defensive racists.

I have posted to this a few times, and may do a Winger Expose at some point, but Arizona basketball has changed.

Arizona is a defensive team, and as such, to those that have watched a lot of offensive dominated basketball (think most all P10 fans, esp. B.H. and B.KO.), or like the flow of the game more in 85-84 contests c/w 56-55 contests, it's play doesn't "look" as pretty.

It's similar to how GTown, or Wisky, or UVa, or UCLA look. Or even some of the better offensive (efficiency) teams like a MSU. Or the Big East in general.

Good defense, marginal offense, lots of time outs and subs. Sacrifice offensive boards to get back on D. No easy buckets. Slowish tempos.

All of that comes at the expense of how good the game and teams look and feel to defensive racists, despite the fact that the teams are good.

Teams like Oregon, and especially UW, and Arizona under Olson, are the opposite.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think Arizona or UCLA are great teams, though I think they are roughly equivalent teams, and both are a slight notch above Oregon. I do think saying Oregon's play of late has been, or looked, better than Arizona smaks of racism however.

None of this matters in the end however, as all 3 need to take care of business, and UCLA has more to do than Oregon who has more to do than Arizona.

These times, they are a changing.

[Reydituto]

I can't get past the impression that the "Arizona hasn't looked good" crowd is a bunch of defensive racists.

I have posted to this a few times, and may do a Winger Expose at some point, but Arizona basketball has changed.

Arizona is a defensive team, and as such, to those that have watched a lot of offensive dominated basketball (think most all P10 fans, esp. B.H. and B.KO.), or like the flow of the game more in 85-84 contests c/w 56-55 contests, it's play doesn't "look" as pretty.

It's similar to how GTown, or Wisky, or UVa, or UCLA look. Or even some of the better offensive (efficiency) teams like a MSU. Or the Big East in general.

Good defense, marginal offense, lots of time outs and subs. Sacrifice offensive boards to get back on D. No easy buckets. Slowish tempos.

All of that comes at the expense of how good the game and teams look and feel to defensive racists, despite the fact that the teams are good.

Teams like Oregon, and especially UW, and Arizona under Olson, are the opposite.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think Arizona or UCLA are great teams, though I think they are roughly equivalent teams, and both are a slight notch above Oregon. I do think saying Oregon's play of late has been, or looked, better than Arizona smaks of racism however.

None of this matters in the end however, as all 3 need to take care of business, and UCLA has more to do than Oregon who has more to do than Arizona.

These times, they are a changing.
I'll agree for this season, UA wins with defense 1st and defense 2nd. I'm hesitating to sign on to this in Miller perpetuity until I see next year's team with more offensive talent and versatility. I agree that it'll never be the Lute Olson tempo, and that because the pack-line D isn't aimed at creating transition opportunities, that UA will have less fast-break chances. But last year UA's offense was pretty good, and really efficient. You say it's only because of Derrick Williams, and therefore last season is an outlier of sorts; I say that he was part of the team last year, that he won't be the last great offensive player at UA that elevates his whole team, and that this team is also missing Momo Jones as a #2 scorer, since he's a better scorer than anyone on the current team except maybe a fully healthy Kevin Parrom, and maybe at times Solo.

I think next year's team with improved PG play and improved post presence will not only "look" better offensively, but be better offensively, while able to approach the level of this year's team defensively. I think if you ask Sean Miller, he'd want to score more points per game than his team has this year (69.8 ppg), and play at a slightly faster (yet still controlled) tempo (currently #204, 65.5 poss pg). When he has more tools next year, I don't think he'll be afraid to use them.