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Winger
08-18-2009, 03:01 PM
Had some free time on my hands today so here are some numbers courtesy of Winger ....

2008 Performance ATS by Conference (includes bowl games)

ACC 76-64-2
B12 76-66-1
P10 62-59-3
MWC 56-53
SEC 72-71-2
WAC 45-54-2
BEa 43-53
B10 58-68-4

Overperforming Teams

North Carolina State 10-2
Oklahoma 10-3
Florida 11-2
Air Force 10-5

Underperforming Teams

LSU 3-9
Fresno State 2-11 (Go Pat Hill!)
Washington 1-11
Michigan 2-10

For What It is Worth Category

Coach Mike Stoops is 19-8 lifetime as a dog
Arizona was 7-5-1 ATS for 2008

Preseason vs. Final AP Poll Difference by Conference

P10 +8
B10 -3
B12 -9
SEC -21

This maintains the older data I presented previously showing over the last 5 years that the P10 is the most overperforming/underrated conference, and the SEC the most underperforming/overrated, conference (by this measure).

Biggest Moves (> +/- 10)

SEC
Ga -12
LSU -18
Au -16
Ala +17
Miss +12

B10
Wisc -13
PSU +14

P10
ASU -11
Ore +11

B12
Missou -13
Kansas -12
OkSt +10

Teams Ranked About Right To Start The Season

Florida +4
USC 0
OU -1
TxTech 0
MichSt +2

Flipper
08-18-2009, 05:08 PM
This don't take into account OOC strength of schedule, does it?

It'll be better if they take out the games within the conference, in the Pac10's case, 90 games. Why, because 45-45 on both sides of the ledger. Duhhh....

Flawed stats. If you're not going to include SOS (OOC), why even put it out?

Winger
08-19-2009, 12:51 AM
This don't take into account OOC strength of schedule, does it?

It'll be better if they take out the games within the conference, in the Pac10's case, 90 games. Why, because 45-45 on both sides of the ledger. Duhhh....

Flawed stats. If you're not going to include SOS (OOC), why even put it out?

I was thinking I should do it for OOC games only, if I have the time I will do so.

Those stats are only w/r/t the line but can be viewed independently of OOC SOS in my opinion, as on average, a team's performance w/r/t the line is independent of SOS.

Winger
08-19-2009, 04:40 PM
It'll be better if they take out the games within the conference

As requested ....

Out Of Conference Performance ATS 2008 Season

B12 27-18
P10 19-15
SEC 25-22
B10 15-26-1

Flipper
08-19-2009, 05:47 PM
As requested ....

Out Of Conference Performance ATS 2008 Season

B12 27-18
P10 19-15
SEC 25-22
B10 15-26-1

Good job.

Next assignment, how many of those W's were against teams FROM BCS conferences, etc. I think it'll get clearer after that.:);)

As example, the Pac has at least 5 wins in bowls, where did the rest come from? I believe it's mostly fellow BCS schools.

And so forth and so on.....

Reydituto
08-19-2009, 06:10 PM
What's your point Flipper? Spell it out for the oblique post challenged ...