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cactuscat62
09-06-2009, 05:18 PM
I didn't see a line for the UofA/NAU match-up, but here are a few interesting games to ponder.

Bold = Home team

USC -4.5 Ohio St.
Tenn -6.5 UCLA
Oregon -13 Purdue
Notre Dame -5.5 Michigan
Stanford PK Wake Forest

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/?s=2112

catgrad
09-06-2009, 08:25 PM
I didn't see a line for the UofA/NAU match-up, but here are a few interesting games to ponder.

Bold = Home team

USC -4.5 Ohio St.
Tenn -6.5 UCLA
Oregon -13 Purdue
Notre Dame -5.5 Michigan
Stanford PK Wake Forest

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/?s=2112

I don't like any of those matchups. UCLA will be hard pressed to hang within a TD in Knoxville

Winger
09-06-2009, 08:35 PM
The Ohio State line is unbelieveable.

scumdevils86
09-06-2009, 08:36 PM
ehh idk if i like any of them either

BlueMikey
09-06-2009, 09:05 PM
The Ohio State line is unbelieveable.

In which direction would you move it?

Winger
09-06-2009, 09:32 PM
In which direction would you move it?

You have to move it toward USC don't you?

The Trojans have absolutely slaughtered every B11 team they have played in the last 5 years, including OSU last season, OSU struggled this week against Navy and the Trojans walked.

It's in the horshoe and I get that Barkley is a freshman and USC's defense lost a bunch of starters, but -4.5 seems ridiculous to me.

USC's OOC margin of victory is like 24 points over the last 8 years and a bunch of those teams were ranked at the time the Trojans played them.

I usually don't play until week 3 or 4 but I took this one the second I saw it.

Disclaimer: I have given up disagreeing with Vegas lines in general however.

TheCat
09-06-2009, 09:37 PM
It will not matter how the freshman QB plays for SC. USC's team speed is the real difference. tOSU may pull this off but if they played 10 times SC would win 7 by more than a TD.

Hopefully SC will rep the PAC well and crush these guys.

hoops7243
09-06-2009, 09:39 PM
Maybe I want Michigan to win this game bad.

GO BLUE

Winger
09-06-2009, 09:46 PM
Old post of mine from 9/2008, I got ripped for the 33-10 prediction fwiw ....


I wonder how many times USC has to wipe the field with an out of conference opponent before they are taken seriously. On college football gamenight the other night they spent 10 minutes talking up OSU and three of them went on to pick the Buckeyes over the Trojans. USC is better at every position on the field save for 1.

USC 33
OSU 10

Here's USC's record against (Top 10 ranked teams noted) OOC opponents the last several years, take a hard look at the scores, but before you look take a guess at USC's average margin of victory against Top 10 ranked OOC teams:

Season Opponent Result Game
2009 #6 Penn State W 38-24
2008 Notre Dame W 38-3
2008 #5 Ohio State W 35-3
2008 Virginia W 52-7
2008 #10 Illinois W 49-17
2007 Nebraska W 49-31
2007 Notre Dame 38-0
2006 #3 Michigan W 32-18
2006 #6 Notre Dame W 44-24
2006 Arkansas 50-14
2006 Nebraska 28-10
2005 #2 Texas L 38-41
2005 Arkansas 70-17
2005 Hawaii 63-17
2005 #9 Notre Dame W 34-31
2005 Fresno St 50-42
2004 #2 Oklahoma W 55-19
2004 Colorado St W 49-0
2004 BYU W 42-10
2004 Va Tech W 24-13
2003 #4 Michigan W 28-14
2003 #6 Auburn W 23-0
2003 BYU W 35-18
2003 Hawaii 61-32
2002 #3 Iowa W 38-17
2002 #7 Notre Dame W 44-13

USC's Margin of Victory against OOC Top 10 Ranked teams = 20 points

Edit: Updated for 2008 season.

BlueMikey
09-06-2009, 09:47 PM
Yeah, definitely Go Blue.

You have to move it toward USC don't you?

The Trojans have absolutely slaughtered every B11 team they have played in the last 5 years, including OSU last season, OSU struggled this week against Navy and the Trojans walked.

It's in the horshoe and I get that Barkley is a freshman and USC's defense lost a bunch of starters, but -4.5 seems ridiculous to me.

USC's OOC margin of victory is like 24 points over the last 8 years and a bunch of those teams were ranked at the time the Trojans played them.

I usually don't play until week 3 or 4 but I took this one the second I saw it.

Disclaimer: I have given up disagreeing with Vegas lines in general however.

I'm in the camp that mostly thinks that OSU looked bad because Navy runs an offense that's hard to prepare for, especially as your Week One opponent.

I think USC will win, but I think the line would be hard to take if it moved much higher (I wouldn't take it at 7). I wouldn't be too worried about USC's defense, but the combination of frosh QB and one of the most imposing places to play, like you said, would have me worried that it'd be a real close game.

CalStateTempe
09-06-2009, 10:00 PM
BM...

What's up with the Go BLUE...

You historically have a strong Pac-10 allegiance and are more the willing to call the rest of us out for going "against" a Pac-10 ally? (recent cite: Ore vs BSU)

What gives?

btw, just curious as to your rationale, not trying to be inflammatory

Gronks_Wifey
09-06-2009, 10:07 PM
I saw USC -6 just now.

Itamicbomb
09-06-2009, 10:08 PM
BM...

What's up with the Go BLUE...

You historically have a strong Pac-10 allegiance and are more the willing to call the rest of us out for going "against" a Pac-10 ally? (recent cite: Ore vs BSU)

What gives?

btw, just curious as to your rationale, not trying to be inflammatory

When did Notre Dame move to the Pac 10? This is huge news.

azcat49
09-06-2009, 10:13 PM
When did Notre Dame move to the Pac 10? This is huge news.

Isn't "Blue" a reference to Michigan? As in "go Big Blue"

ZONACAT
09-06-2009, 10:14 PM
I would think the USC line will explode to around 10. Which could be a sucker bet.

Granted Ohio State looked bad against Navy, but a freshman QB at the shoe is not usually a recipe for a blow out. It could happen, but it will be on the legs of the RB and not the arm of Barkley.

I'm thinking the game ends up being tight.

BlueMikey
09-06-2009, 10:27 PM
BM...

What's up with the Go BLUE...

You historically have a strong Pac-10 allegiance and are more the willing to call the rest of us out for going "against" a Pac-10 ally? (recent cite: Ore vs BSU)

What gives?

btw, just curious as to your rationale, not trying to be inflammatory

What Itam said. I won't be cheering for Michigan if they make it back to the Rose Bowl.

There's nothing worse than Notre Dame getting to a BCS game because they worked in some bullcrap exceptions that makes it easier to get into a bowl game as an independent than actually playing a grueling conference schedule. Although actually being a Notre Dame football fan might be worse than all that (don't have a problem with their basketball program).

cactuscat62
09-06-2009, 11:06 PM
Maybe I want Michigan to win this game bad.

GO BLUE

Me too...I can't stand f***ing Notre Dame. As far as I'm concerned they can lose every game, and I still wouldn't be happy.

They are evil and must be destroyed.

Winger
09-08-2009, 01:18 PM
Just saw the CMU - MSU line at -15.5, why isn't that higher?

Flipper
09-08-2009, 02:22 PM
I would think the USC line will explode to around 10. Which could be a sucker bet.

Granted Ohio State looked bad against Navy, but a freshman QB at the shoe is not usually a recipe for a blow out. It could happen, but it will be on the legs of the RB and not the arm of Barkley.

I'm thinking the game ends up being tight.

Barkley's a frosh in name only. Kid's the real deal. I have SC winning by a couple of touchdowns at least. Not because of Barkley per se, but due to that awesome line, stable of solid rb's (will be fresh throughout the game) and a fast defense.

Dick Tomey commented in the papers that the SC offensive line is the best he's ever played against. That's a lot of years, against lots of teams.

I have UCLA playing close to UT, with a chance to win at the end. Wink, wink.

hoops7243
09-08-2009, 06:34 PM
USC has 6 RBs. Enough said. give me the -4.5

Morgan
09-08-2009, 06:40 PM
SC did a pretty good job of protecting Barkley in start #1. I'd guess/hope Ohio State has more talent to where they'd force SC to put Barkley is tougher situations. I like SC and it will probably be by double digits. The only hope Ohio State has is to force Barkley to beat them and get some turnovers. He is prone to throw picks.

cactuscat62
09-08-2009, 07:19 PM
USC has 6 RBs. Enough said. give me the -4.5

The site that I use now has USC -7.

It looks like everyone and their mother's are laying huge amounts on USC.

Winger
09-09-2009, 11:31 AM
The site that I use now has USC -7.

It looks like everyone and their mother's are laying huge amounts on USC.

Might be because USC's average margin of victory over teams ranked in the Top 10 at the time of the game is 20 points, and the fact that USC is 11-1 in those games.

Course now that I have shown that and questioned athe line this the game will probably come in right on the number!

Still don't get MSU -15 v. CMU either.

Winger
09-10-2009, 10:44 AM
LVSC College Football Rankings - Week 2
Rank Team Rating Last Week
1 Florida 121.5 1
2 Southern Cal 119.4 3
3 Texas 117.7 4
4 Alabama 112.5 6
5 Penn State 111.3 8
6 Mississippi 110.9 7
7 California 110.8 9
8 Ohio State 110.6 5
9 Notre Dame 110.2 11
10 Oklahoma 110.1 2
11 Texas Christian 109.0 10
12 Oklahoma State 108.8 12
13 Nebraska 108.1 18
14 LSU 107.9 13
14 Brigham Young 107.9 NR
16 Boise State 107.1 20
17 Iowa 106.5 14
18 Oregon 106.2 15
19 Clemson 106.1 23
20 Miami 105.7 24
21 Georgia 105.6 19
22 Virginia Tech 105.3 17
22 Georgia Tech 105.3 25
24 Illinois 105.1 16
25 Kansas 105.0 22
25 Cincinnati 105.0 NR
27 South Florida 104.8 29
28 Utah 104.6 NR
28 Texas Tech 104.6 25
30 Michigan State 104.5 NR
30 Missouri 104.5 NR
30 North Carolina 104.5 28
Dropped out of Top 30: Pittsburgh (29), Rutgers (27) & Florida State (21).
Next 10: Pittsburgh, Arizona, Florida State, Tennessee, Stanford, Arkansas, West Virginia, South Carolina, UCLA & Oregon State.

the real dill
09-10-2009, 11:37 AM
any thoughts on Clemson @ GT -5? I'm thinking GT runs over, around, and through Clemson tonight.

TucsonDon
09-10-2009, 12:10 PM
Liked it at -3. Clemson's lack of hype almost makes me nervous considering how things have gone the past few years. I'm a big Dabo fan, though.


That Fresno/Wisky game caught my eye earlier in the week and I hit it...now it's off the board because of the flu situation @ Madison. Gonna learn a lot about the Pac-10 this week with two road dogs and two road (one TD) favorites. Everyone has finally caught on that west coast teams going east and playing at 9 AM doesn't work so hot but I kinda feel like Stanford would be the exception to that just because of the staff and the type of kids they've got. Also, Oregon State giving seven in Vegas doesn't scare me too much...Lots of action on the two LA teams. Taking the points looks pretty inviting in both of those.

Adam Hawes
09-10-2009, 01:21 PM
What are you thinking about the Ohio -3 to North Texas line? Seems like NT is better than that...

TucsonDon
09-10-2009, 01:42 PM
What are you thinking about the Ohio -3 to North Texas line? Seems like NT is better than that...

I had North Texas last week but that was out of pure interest over seeing Riley Dodge. I also had Ohio against UConn and they disappointed. I think Ohio is a pretty solid group, probably a better team than North Texas although the edge in coaching goes to the Mean Green. I'm staying off that one and chalking it up to a knowledge banker. Mostly I wouldn't want to bet against Boo Jackson because he had a pretty poor game last week and I wouldn't count on that happening again here.

This game however leads me into the interesting line of the week which is that UNC/UConn game. Beyond wanting to see a basketball series break out from this it's certainly alarming that a great majority of the public is giving the points to Carolina and yet the line is creeping the other direction. Big money is clearly with the home Huskies and those folks usually know more than I do.

cactuscat62
09-10-2009, 06:07 PM
Everyone has finally caught on that west coast teams going east and playing at 9 AM doesn't work so hot but I kinda feel like Stanford would be the exception to that just because of the staff and the type of kids they've got. Also, Oregon State giving seven in Vegas doesn't scare me too much.

I like these 2 games as well. I got Stanford +3.5, and Oregon St. -7

the real dill
09-10-2009, 11:20 PM
any thoughts on Clemson @ GT -5? I'm thinking GT runs over, around, and through Clemson tonight.

F me. Choke job

Winger
09-10-2009, 11:32 PM
F me. Choke job

You had good reason to like GT.

I think they had beaten Clemson like 5 or 6 times in a row, covering a fair number of those, and the last time they had a "white out" they rolled.

TucsonDon
09-11-2009, 01:04 AM
That was why I liked it at -3. The last 10 times GaTech has beaten Clemson going back 20 years, Jackets average a 3.6 point margin of victory. Over those 20 years, something like 13 of the 19 games have been decided by four points or less on either side. These teams always play close; it's a solid ACC rivalry.

Thinking about NAU +31...

Winger
09-11-2009, 07:54 AM
Thinking about NAU +31...

Along that vein I like Arkansas State better.

Even at 7 I still think USC is a no brainer as well.

PerpEph
09-11-2009, 12:53 PM
That was why I liked it at -3. The last 10 times GaTech has beaten Clemson going back 20 years, Jackets average a 3.6 point margin of victory. Over those 20 years, something like 13 of the 19 games have been decided by four points or less on either side. These teams always play close; it's a solid ACC rivalry.

Thinking about NAU +31...

Don't do it. Zendejas is going to kick 11 field goals and the D is going to shut out NAU.

33-0.

BlueMikey
09-11-2009, 01:02 PM
I knew I should have taken Zendejas in this week's RAP.

scumdevils86
09-11-2009, 01:49 PM
I bet he can double the school record ;)

the real dill
09-11-2009, 05:00 PM
Stanford @ Wake Forest -3 (9 AM start for Stanford (PST) after flying across the country)
Notre Dame -3 @ Michigan
Houston @ Ok St. -15.5 and over 68
TCU -11 @ Virginia
Texas -32 @ Wyoming
Rice +28 @ Texas Tech

leaning toward SC in the big one.

Winger
09-11-2009, 05:18 PM
Stanford @ Wake Forest -3 (9 AM start for Stanford (PST) after flying across the country)
Notre Dame -3 @ Michigan
Houston @ Ok St. -15.5 and over 68
TCU -11 @ Virginia
Texas -32 @ Wyoming
Rice +28 @ Texas Tech

leaning toward SC in the big one.

You like the teams listed first? Lotta Texas and roadies if so. Assuming that's right, you must know something about Houston, b/c off the top of my head I would swear OSU would cover that number.

ND is a tough one for me, I'd like to see them have success against a real team (even potentially a bad real team like UM), before I bet on them.

Lean hard on USC ...

the real dill
09-11-2009, 05:27 PM
You like the teams listed first? Lotta Texas and roadies if so. Assuming that's right, you must know something about Houston, b/c off the top of my head I would swear OSU would cover that number.

ND is a tough one for me, I'd like to see them have success against a real team (even potentially a bad real team like UM), before I bet on them.

Lean hard on USC ...

Nah, the ones with the line listed, I'll bold to make it easier:

Stanford @ Wake Forest -3 (9 AM start for Stanford (PST) after flying across the country)
Notre Dame -3 @ Michigan
Houston @ Ok St. -15.5 and over 68
TCU -11 @ Virginia
Texas -32 @ Wyoming
Rice +28 @ Texas Tech

I have it set up with two other guys, one who handles SEC/East and another who handles Pac-10/West so that is why you see the local focus. It is easier when you only have to research one of the teams involved, and then in conference you can focus on one conference.

I am heavy on road teams, and if I could only take one I would take the Over on UofH-Ok St. I think you see Ok St. hang 50 and UH end up in the mid 20s to low 30s. Weather, however, could be a factor.

azcat49
09-11-2009, 06:07 PM
I like Wazzu to get a win in Hawaii. I would take the 3 points.

I also like Vandy to cover against LSU who will have another disappointing year for the tiger faithful. Vandy +15

I also like UNLV to hang with an OSU team that always seems to struggle early in the year. UNLV +7.5

I also took the early line on Tenn (-5) over UCLA. I think the Bruins get embarrased by 2 TD's

cactuscat62
09-11-2009, 07:22 PM
I also took the early line on Tenn (-5) over UCLA. I think the Bruins get embarrased by 2 TD's



Yeah, I kind of agree with you on this one. Although I hope not...just for Pac-10 pride.

I have it on my "bucket list"...I need to go see a Tennessee football game in Knoxville. I guess you can say that about any SEC school.

ArzCatz3
09-12-2009, 02:28 PM
I just did a 2 team parlay

ND -3 @ Mich

OSU @ +7 UNLV

Thoughts?

Adam Hawes
09-12-2009, 02:33 PM
I picked OSU to cover in a parlay over UNLV.

cactuscat62
09-12-2009, 03:00 PM
...same here

ArzCatz3
09-12-2009, 03:07 PM
Sorry boys...but I think you guys are on the wrong end of the line on this one ;)

azdoubledown
09-12-2009, 03:12 PM
I like it AC3, especially after watching OSU get absolutely dismanteled at PSU early last year on the road.

these are mine

Tenn - 11
SC -7
UNLV +7
UNLV/OSU Under 53
Wash - 20.5

hoops7243
09-12-2009, 07:38 PM
Bad day today.
how did you guys do?

Adam Hawes
09-12-2009, 07:41 PM
I've got a 3 team parlay that I'm waiting on.

USC to cover @ 7.5
Utah to win
OSU to cover @ 6.5

hoops7243
09-12-2009, 07:45 PM
I've got a 3 team parlay that I'm waiting on.

USC to cover @ 7.5
Utah to win
OSU to cover @ 6.5

good luck!!!