Can Arizona Achieve Elite Status? (Part One)

Can Arizona ever become an elite college football program? I define an elite program as a perennial top-10 program that wins conference championships regularly and is consistently in the national title hunt. When I think of elite college football programs I think of teams such as USC, Ohio St., Oklahoma, Florida, and Texas. Can Arizona ever join that list?

In order for a program to consistently be among the nation’s elite, it needs to rely on factors other than its head coach because coaches come and go. The key to sustained success in college football is recruiting. Simply put, the programs that recruit the best high school players dominate the top-10 and title games. Therefore, I will examine how Arizona is currently recruiting, how elite programs are currently recruiting, and if Arizona can possibly recruit well enough to emerge as a national football power.

After researching this subject, I have determined that one blog is not sufficient to adequately examine this topic. This will be the first of two blogs. It will focus mostly on elite football programs and their recruiting advantages because prior to discussing whether our beloved Wildcats can ever achieve elite status, it would be wise to first focus on those who have already achieved our desired level of success. The second blog will focus on what Arizona has to do to emerge has a perennial top-10 college football program.

Recruiting Data

In preparing for these blogs I studied a Sports Illustrated report on recruiting, and a model developed by three economists to predict where top college football recruits would choose to play. The reports were lengthy but the findings were simple: top recruits want to play in a BCS conference, in a big stadium, in front of family and friends. Surprisingly, for many recruits location is more important than tradition. Of the 44 recruits in Rivals 2010 Top-100 that have already committed, 75 percent have committed to an in-state school. The findings showed teams that recruit at least 50 percent of their players from in-state or within 200 miles, stand the best chance of sustained success.

When it comes to top college football recruits, three states reign supreme: California, Texas, and Florida. Of the 200 recruits that make up the Rivals 2009 and 2010 Top-100, 42 percent are from these three states. From 2006 to 2009, Florida produced a combined 199 four and five star recruits while Texas and California produced 171 and 148 respectively. Not only do these states produce a high number of elite recruits, but the dominating school in each state keeps many of them home. From 2004-2008, 93 percent of the recruits who went to the University of Texas were from the state of Texas. During that same time period USC recruited 72 percent of its players from California while the University of Florida recruited 62 percent of its players from in-state. Is it any wonder that teams such as USC, Texas, and Florida regularly challenge for national championships?

In stark contrast, the state of Arizona has produced nine football prospects which have reached the Rivals Top-100…in the past nine years. Nine in nine years is less than California, Texas, and Florida each have in 2010. Florida actually has twice as many recruits in the Top-100 in 2010 than Arizona has had in the past nine years. From 2006 to 2009, Arizona has produced a total of just 18 four and five and star recruits. From 2004-2008, the University of Arizona has recruited just 12 percent of its players from in-state while ASU recruited 26 percent. The lack of top local high school talent obviously makes the goal of achieving elite status difficult.

Demographics

The states of California, Texas, and Florida show no signs of slowing down. Currently, California is the most populated state in the country with nearly 37 million people. Texas and Florida check in second and fourth respectively. According to the Census Bureau, from 2000 to 2030, nearly 46 percent of the total U.S. population growth will occur in these three states. The only change in the rankings will be that by 2011, Florida is predicted to overtake New York for third.

Higher populations obviously give these states a better opportunity to produce top football recruits. In California, Texas, and Florida, there is, and will continue to be, more than enough talent to go around.

Where does the state of Arizona stand demographically? With such a disparity in the number of homegrown elite recruits, does the University of Arizona even stand a chance to recruit well enough to put itself in a position to challenge for national championships on a regular basis? Despite these numbers, I believe that the Wildcats can reach elite status and my following blog will explain why.