Can Arizona Achieve Elite Status? (Part Two)

This blog was intended to be the second and final part of my analysis of the University of Arizona’s chances to reach elite status in the world of college football.
However, there is far too much information to be discussed so this will simply be part two of three.

This blog will focus on two things: 1) Where does the U of A get its players from and 2) what are the geographic and demographic advantages and disadvantages of the state of Arizona and its neighbors.

From 2006-2009, Arizona has averaged 22 players per recruiting class. Over these past four years, 48 percent of new Wildcats came from California. Texas was the source of 26 percent of Arizona’s new recruiting classes, while 14 percent came from the state of Arizona itself. The remaining 11 percent of recruits came from five states: Hawaii, Nevada, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Oklahoma. So the U of A’s top three states for recruiting have most recently been California, Texas, and Arizona.

So where do our Wildcats go from here? In future years, will there be sufficient talent close enough to Tucson for the U of A to have a chance to stock its roster with top high school talent? Let’s examine the possibilities state by state.

Arizona
Current Population: 6.5 million
Current Ranking: 14th most populated
BCS Universities: Two (Arizona and ASU)
Number of five and four-star recruits produced from 2006-2009: 18
Future trends: The U.S. Census predicts that Arizona will grow by 109 percent from 2000-2030, making it the 2nd fastest growing state - in terms of percentage - in the country. This significant increase in population will catapult Arizona into the top-10 most populated states in the country by 2030.

Despite the fact that the Tucson-area is growing faster than the average U.S. metropolitan area, the Phoenix-area is growing nearly twice as fast. My third blog on this subject will deal with Arizona vs. ASU in greater detail, but I feel it’s worth mentioning here that the U of A can offer Phoenix-area recruits something that ASU cannot: a chance to get away from home but still be close enough for their friends and family to watch them play.

New Mexico
Current Population: 2 million
Current Ranking: 36th most populated
BCS Universities: None
Number of five and four-star recruits produced from 2006-2009: 1
Future trends: By 2030, New Mexico will be one of six states with 1 of 4 residents at the age of 65 or older.

Despite the fact that the U of A will not find fertile recruiting grounds immediately to its east, I will explain later how the state of New Mexico actually helps Arizona recruit.

Utah
Current Population: 2.75 million
Current Ranking: 34th most populated
BCS Universities: None
Number of five and four-star recruits produced from 2006-2009: 9
Future trends: From 2000-2030, Utah will grow by over 50 percent, making it the fifth fastest growing state by percentage.

Utah does border Arizona but most of the population is up north in the Salt Lake/Provo area, which is roughly 700 miles from Tucson. However, of the nine recruits in recent years that earned a Rivals ranking of five or four stars, five left the state to play college ball. Three of those went to L.A. to play for USC or UCLA. Tucson and L.A. are roughly the same distance from the Salt Lake/Provo area so if the Wildcats have enough to offer, distance should not be much of an issue.

Nevada
Current Population: 2.6 million
Current Ranking: 35th most populated
BCS Universities: None
Number of five and four-star recruits produced from 2006-2009: 7
Future trends: From 2000-2030, Nevada is expected to grow by 114 percent, making it the fastest growing state in the country. Much of the growth is in the southern part of the state, in the Las Vegas area.

Las Vegas is 270 miles from L.A., 305 miles from Tempe, and 410 miles from Tucson. The combination of its exceptional growth, lack of an in-state BCS school, and proximity to nearly half of the schools in the Pac-10 should make Nevada a heavily recruited state over the next two decades. The U of A landed Keola Antolin and Juron Criner from Las Vegas in 2008 and Garic Wharton in 2010. Maintaining a pipeline from Nevada to Tucson would be a wise move for the Wildcats.

California
Current Population: 37 million
Current Ranking: The most populated state
BCS Universities: Four (USC, UCLA, California, and Stanford)
Number of five and four-star recruits produced from 2006-2009: 148
Future trends: From 2000-2030, California is expected to grow by over 12 million residents.

Tucson is within 500 miles of all of Southern California. SoCal (as the kids call it) is home to 65 percent of California’s residents. That’s over 24 million people. There are only two states that border Southern California: Nevada and Arizona. Only Arizona has any BCS schools.

Texas
Current Population: 24 million residents
Current Ranking: 2nd most populated state
BCS Universities: Four (Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and Baylor)
Number of five and four-star recruits produced from 2006-2009: 171
Future trends: From 2000-2030, Texas will be the fourth fastest growing state by percentage, which will give it over 12 million new residents.

Texas is what Arizona most likely will never become: a football crazy state with tens of millions of people. I am not sure if it is in the water or what, but there is a passion for football at all levels in Texas that does not exist in Arizona. However, the U of A is the closest Pac-10 school to Texas (roughly 300 miles from El Paso) and has by far recruited Texas more than any other Pac-10 school. Since 2005, the Wildcats have recruited 33 players from Texas. Stanford has recruited the second most players from Texas in that same time period with just 10. Mike Stoops and much of his staff have ties to Texas but I doubt he nabs as many Texans if he was recruiting from Pullman or Corvallis.

The Significance of Borders
Arizona shares a geographic feature with California, Texas, and Florida: a significant portion of Arizona does not border a U.S. state. Mexico borders Arizona’s entire southern border. California is bordered by the Pacific Ocean to the west and Mexico to the south. Texas borders Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico to the south, while Florida is bordered by oceans to its west, south, and almost its entire eastern border.

When it comes to football recruiting, not bordering another state can be a benefit or a disadvantage, depending on the state. For example, for California, Texas, and Florida it is a great advantage. These states are full of football talent and do not have to worry about the Pacific Ocean, Mexico, the Gulf of Mexico, or the Atlantic Ocean trying to recruit their top high school talent.

Compare that with another state that is full of football recruits: Georgia. This state is also full of talented football players but the University of Georgia and Georgia Tech have to not only compete with each other for the state’s top talent, but have to also worry about Florida, Florida State, South Florida, and Miami from the south; Auburn and Alabama from the west; Clemson and South Carolina from the east; and Tennessee from the north.

Washington is an example of a state that is limited by its location. There have been less five and four-star recruits from Washington in recent years than there have been from Arizona. As opposed to California, Texas, and Florida, the Washington schools must look to its neighbors for recruits instead of relying mostly on homegrown talent, but there are slim pickings in every direction. Washington borders the Pacific Ocean to the west, Canada to the north, Idaho to the east and Oregon to the south. This geographic set-up would be perfect if the state of Washington was loaded with talent, but it is not. There is some talent in Washington but not enough. In order to compete, the Washington schools need to lure recruits from long distance.

Arizona is sitting pretty. As previously mentioned, Mexico is no threat to steal Arizona’s top high school talent. New Mexico, Utah, and Nevada do not have a single BCS school between them, so they are no threat to steal top talent from Arizona. The only state that borders Arizona, that has schools that play in a BCS conference, is California.

My final blog will tie all of these statistics together. The U of A is not situated geographically as well as USC or UCLA, however, I do believe that the geographic challenges which may have hindered recruiting for the past two decades will actually prove to be a benefit over the next twenty years. These demographic benefits, the role that the ASU rivalry plays in recruiting, and my game plan for how the University of Arizona can recruit well enough to reach elite status will all be discussed in my final blog on this subject.