http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php GOAZCATS.com - The Totally Unofficial University of Arizona Wildcats Fan Site Message Board - Community - Discussion Board - Basketball, football, recruiting and more. en Thu, 29 Jul 2010 17:41:54 GMT vBulletin 60 http://forum.goazcats.com/images/misc/rss.jpg http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=32 Tue, 13 Jul 2010 19:44:04 GMT So who is better?! So who is better?! ]]> Hill http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=32 http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=30 Sat, 13 Feb 2010 13:19:22 GMT Does anyone have any info on the 2011 recruiting class? I know that Chance Early from San Diego went to their elite camp last summer. I think they like him. I saw a couple of his videos on you tube.
Pretty impressive. Here's a couple of links.

http://www.youtube.co/watch?v=a9FEVGM5Wcg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zT1KZdwSFC0 ]]> oldschoolhk http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=30 http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=29 Mon, 08 Feb 2010 00:14:08 GMT Nic was was the bridge between the Olson era, and the Miller era. He was around during the fading of the elite years of Arizona basketball, and endured it's lowest moments in decades. And now in his final year in Tucson, he's here to lead the start of a new time for the program, with the hopes of that elite status once again being held by the Cats.


But who's next?


Or is it not going to be just one player.. Will we have multiple PG's in the next few years? It's very possible. The available options as of now, for the 2010-11 season are:


Momo Jones
Jordin Mayes
Kyle Fogg


I disagree with those that say Kyle could be our PG next year. But I put him as an option, because it's still possible. I just don't see it happening. Kyle works well off the ball, and is better at receiving a pass, then taking his man off the dribble.. as opposed to the one doing the passing.. then going to set a screen..


Plus, I've never thought of Kyle Fogg as a great distributor. I think he's a decent passer, but obviously not a pure point.



Momo Jones- many here are pleased with his play as of late, and are excited about his future here. I am as well. But I don't think I could consider him a good point guard just yet. He definitely plays more like a 2-guard. I've watched him closely during games.. and I've noticed that when he starts driving to the basket- his mind is usually made up. Either he's gonna drive it in all the way.. or he's gonna drive it, stop, spin, and shoot a little fade-away. I'd like to see him keep his head up a little more when he's on the way to the bucket. I still think he takes 1-2 bad shots a game. And he needs to keep the flow of the offense moving. He still has moments where he'll receive the ball, hold it, and wait 2-4 seconds before doing anything.


As he continues to get PT, and get coached up, I think Momo has a very good shot of being Arizona's point guard. But personally, I don't ever see Lamont Jones being our PG 100% of the time... which kind of leads into the answer for my main question in this blog, and what the topic is all about.



Jordin Mayes will be coming in next year, and I really think he will see a decent amount of minutes. He does need to pack on some weight though, but he has the frame to do it. I've read more than once about how much he enjoys playing D, and how he said after watching a UA practice.. he saw how he could fit in, and he liked what he saw. His strength is his shot.. but I'm not sure how good of a distributor/play-maker he is.



Bottom line is, early on I think we'll see a lot of Momo Jones at the point, with Mayes getting minutes here and there to replace him and eventually possibly working his way into a starting spot.



Then again, if we land Josh Selby, this all goes out the window, and he'll be the PG for sure.. well, at least for a year. ]]> FelesFera http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=29 http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=28 Fri, 05 Feb 2010 08:17:20 GMT Josh Selby, Doron Lamb, Ray McCallum, Jesse Perry, and Kadeem Jack. Those seem to be the guys that we're really trying to land, considering there's probably other guys out there a lot of us "not-in-the-know" guys just don't know about, or haven't heard of yet.


In my opinion, out of those 5 guys that are heavily discussed by Cat fans on just about every UA fan site.. I have a feeling we're gonna land the JC guy, and... who knows. But let's get back to the JC guy, Jesse Perry. I could see him down low playing along side D-Will. I see Perry as a scrapper, a rebounder, and good defender. A guy the fans would appreciate and embrace, similarly to quite a few of the current Cats on the team.


Now, besides just not having a damn clue or hunch at all, another reason I'm not sure who else we'll get in this class... is because another schollie might have to open up somehow, some way. The MAIN reason I have no clue, no hunch, nada.. is because McCallum is being awfully quiet, and just about everybody says it's very likely he'll end up playing for pops.


As for Selby and Lamb and Jack- I have this feeling that as they take more visits, and play some more basketball, and get a little more attention from schools that want them. . they're gonna start feelin themselves a little more, and really start to believe they're deserving of great things, which they probably already do believe, to be honest. Jack might have Arizona on the mind now... but what about in a month or two?


I hate having to wait to see what happens.. But, if you put me on the spot, and I HAD to give you a guess-


I'll say we land Jesse Perry, and Ray McCallum.


Why would Perry say no to us? ..just look at the rest of his offers. And McCallum, as quiet as he's been throughout this whole process.. something tells me he's keeping an eye on Arizona. We shall see.. ]]> Farva http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=28 http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=26 Sun, 24 Jan 2010 05:48:38 GMT yay go cats!!! Im so happy! :hyper: I heard that we scored 52 points in the second half and the devils only scored 58 points in the whole game :lutesparky: !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! yay go cats!!! Im so happy! :hyper: I heard that we scored 52 points in the second half and the devils only scored 58 points in the whole game :lutesparky: !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ]]> http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=26 http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=24 Thu, 24 Dec 2009 16:12:19 GMT Whatever happened to Nancy Evens at arizona?? I moved to kansas and I never heard anything about why she left?? Whatever happened to Nancy Evens at arizona?? I moved to kansas and I never heard anything about why she left?? ]]> chiplyman http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=24 http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=21 Sat, 22 Aug 2009 23:04:56 GMT So here I am, homes. I'm new to tha board, but I'm no stranger to UofA ahletics. This blog is a little about that Cats, and a little about the perception and culture of the Old Pueblo, esse.

You see, a lot of people have these misconceptions about this side of town. A lot of people are scared. In fact homes, South Tucson is it's own city. That's right. Oh make no mistake compa, this side of town can be dangerous. When messing with the wrong people..**** can happen ey. But unless provoked, you don't have to worry about things too much here. Some good ass restaurants, and some fine ass heinas is what you'll find over here. As far as the red-blue thing- You don't have to really worry about that. Your safest bet, homes, is to wear a UofA shirt. That way you can wear either color, and nobody will do **** to you.


I'm a straight up G.. but I still keep up with my Cats. And we rap them good. I got the threads and the kicks to look Wildcat'd out homes. You don't know nothin bout this UofA fanhood over here on the South side, ey. You'll see some of the hardest OG's wearin UofA t-shirts, lids, kicks, n all kinds of ****. We rep the south, homie.


I'm glad to be on board on this site.. look for some good-ass UA discussion. Gotta get my fill of Wildcat sports one way or another, ey. I look to be a contributing member of this board for years to come, straight up. And I can't wait for tha season to start up. Best believe I got my tix already. No doubt about that, esse. Puro loco aqui, signing off. Lates. ]]> SouthTucsonGato http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=21 http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=20 Thu, 20 Aug 2009 19:22:43 GMT Much has been written and discussed over the past few months about the fact that the University of Arizona will be starting a new quarterback this season. The loss of Willie Tuitama and the inexperience of Matt Scott and Nick Foles have caused many preseason writers to rank the Wildcats far lower... Much has been written and discussed over the past few months about the fact that the University of Arizona will be starting a new quarterback this season. The loss of Willie Tuitama and the inexperience of Matt Scott and Nick Foles have caused many preseason writers to rank the Wildcats far lower than U of A fans, and the players themselves, feel the team deserves. Playing the quarterback position is made much easier by two factors: an effective offensive line and weapons at the other skill positions. This blog will focus on the latter of the two. I will not attempt to project how unproven players will do this season, but will rather focus specifically on returning players.

Do Scott and Foles have enough talent surrounding them to make their job easier? How does Arizona’s returning talent match-up with the rest of the conference?

Touchdowns
Let’s start with touchdowns scored. You can’t win if you can’t score. It’s as simple as that. There are seven returning players (QBs not included) in the PAC-10 that scored at least 10 touchdowns last season. Surprisingly, three of those seven are Wildcats, while no other team has more than one. Nicolas Grigsby’s (13), Rob Gronkowski’s (10), and Keola Antolin’s (10) combined 33 touchdowns is more than any other team has returning, except USC. In fact, the 33 touchdowns by just these three players gives Arizona more returning scoring than ASU, UCLA, Washington, and Washington State combined.

Rushing
A solid rushing attack is vital to the success of a young quarterback because it occupies the defenders and frees up the passing game. Five 1,000-yard running backs return to the PAC-10 this season. Nicolas Grigsby is one of them. Eleven running backs return to the conference this season that rushed for at least 500 yards last year. Grigsby (1,195) and Antolin (534) make Arizona just one of three teams in the PAC-10 that returns two or more rushers with 500-plus yards. Only USC and Cal return multiple running backs that have rushed for more combined yards than Arizona’s duo.

Receiving
A capable receiving core is obviously critical to a quarterback’s success. This is an area in which Scott and Foles have no need to worry. There are nine players returning to the PAC-10 this season that had at least 40 receptions last year and three of them are Wildcats. Delashaun Dean (53), Gronkowski (47), and Terrell Turner (43) give the Wildcats more accomplished receiving threats than any team in the conference. In fact, UCLA is the only other school that has at least two receivers that reached the 40 reception mark last year. However, to be fair to the Bruins, they did have a third receiver with 38 catches and did not play in a bowl game.

But what do these receivers do with all these catches? Of the eleven returning PAC-10 players that had 500-plus receiving yards last year, three are from the U of A (Gronkowski-672, Dean-593, and Turner-580). USC has two receivers that fall into this category, while no other team in the conference has more than one.

Diversity
Scott and Foles are fortunate to have both receiving and rushing weapons at their disposal. Of the 42 touchdowns returning to the Wildcats, 23 have come on the ground and 19 have come through the air. Grigsby, Antolin, Gronkowski, Dean, and Turner give Arizona more returning offensive firepower than every team in the PAC-10, except USC. And it’s a close second. So yes, Arizona has to find a new quarterback. However, whoever wins the quarterback competition will have far more help than 80 percent of the teams in the PAC-10.

Notes
A few things I found interesting while doing this research:

*Of the 22 touchdowns scored by Stanford’s returning players that are not quarterbacks, 15 belong to Toby Gerhart. Much is expected of Stanford this season, but if Gerhart goes down it could be another bowless season for the Cardinal.

*USC leads in total returning touchdowns from non-quarterbacks with 45. Arizona is second with 42 and Cal is third with 31.

*Grigsby’s 13 touchdowns are more than the entire ASU offense returns. Despite what the preseason predictions say, Scott and Foles are in a far better position than Danny Sullivan.

*UCLA has received some preseason love but the Bruins need to find a running game. Derrick Coleman is UCLA’s most accomplished returning running back and he rushed for just 284 yards and 2 touchdowns last year.

*Cal did not have a single player with 30 or more receptions last season. In addition, their two top running backs, Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen, tied for second on the team with 27 receptions each. Kevin Riley needs to find some receivers to throw to because teams are going to stack the box to stop Cal’s rushing attack.

*81 percent of Oregon State’s returning rushing and receiving touchdowns come from the Rodgers brothers. The OSU defense returns just three starters so those little guys need to stay healthy or the Beavers could be in trouble. ]]> Damien DeMarco http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=20 http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=19 Wed, 12 Aug 2009 19:46:49 GMT GothamHoops.com has recently updated Arizona recruit, Pinkston's scouting report.

http://www.gothamhoops.com/?p=1412 ]]> GothamHoops http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=19 http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=18 Tue, 11 Aug 2009 21:58:48 GMT Over the past month or so, I have tried to answer the question: “Can the University of Arizona ever achieve elite status in the world of college football?” When I initially decided to write about this topic I thought that I could do so in just one blog. However, as I began my research I realized... Over the past month or so, I have tried to answer the question: “Can the University of Arizona ever achieve elite status in the world of college football?” When I initially decided to write about this topic I thought that I could do so in just one blog. However, as I began my research I realized that there was far too much information to cover for one blog. This is my third and final blog on this subject. The previous two have been setting the stage for this one. This blog will explain why I believe that the U of A will be able to recruit well enough over the next two decades to put itself in a position to challenge for national championships.

Let me start by saying that recruiting alone does not produce national championships in college football. However, recent history has shown that without recruiting at an elite level, winning national championships is nearly impossible. Based on my research, recruiting has become mostly about geography and demographics. The majority of elite recruits want to play for a school that is in a BCS conference and is located close enough to home that friends and family can watch him play. So how is the U of A’s situation? Are there enough elite recruits close to Tucson to make the Wildcats a national championship contender?

I believe the University of Arizona is currently in position to recruit well enough to be a perennial top-25 football program. Within its own conference, Oregon and Oregon State have given hope to Wildcat fans by consistently producing top-25 teams despite facing far greater demographic challenges than the U of A.

But can the U of A recruit well enough right now to put itself in the position to compete for national championships on a regular basis? My conclusion is no. Does this mean that I lack faith in our coaches or players? No. It simply means that the teams which have achieved elite status over the past decade have done so by recruiting elite talent close to home. The state of Arizona simply does not have enough elite talent to support an elite program – yet

Demographic trends suggest that over the next 20 years the state of Arizona and many of its neighbors will experience a significant, faster than average population increase. Despite this population boom, the state of Arizona will not have the population of California, Texas, or Florida. Therefore, it would be unrealistic for the U of A to expect recruiting classes like those at USC, Texas, and Florida. From 2006-2009, those three schools averaged 3 five-star, 13 four-star, and 4 three-star recruits per class. In contrast, over that same period, the U of A has averaged 4 four-star, 14 three-star, and 4 two-star recruits per class.

Can the U of A fill 80 percent of its recruiting classes with five and four-star talent? All signs point to no. Has any football program achieved elite status while filling less than 80 percent of its classes with five and four-star recruits? Is there an example that the U of A can follow? Yes. Interestingly enough, the school that produced the current Wildcat coach has also provided the U of A with a realistic model for recruiting success.

The University of Oklahoma has won more football games than any school this decade. From 2006-2009, the Sooners have averaged 1 five-star, 11 four-star, and 10 three-star recruits per class. That means that Oklahoma, despite its elite status, is filling 45 percent of its roster with three-star players. The average Oklahoma recruit traveled nearly 400 miles to play for the Sooners and just 23 percent came from instate. From 2006-2009, the state of Oklahoma has produced 20 five and four-star recruits. Of those 20 recruits, nine, or 45 percent, committed to OU while six committed to Oklahoma State. That means that over the past four years, 75 percent of Oklahoma’s best high school recruits stayed instate. Over that same time period, the state of Arizona has produced a comparable 18 four and five-star recruits. However, only 39 percent of those players stayed instate and just 6 percent went to the U of A.

So can the U of A ever recruit well enough to reach elite status? Or is it forever doomed due to its geographic and demographic handicaps? After researching this subject for the past month or so, I have reached the conclusion that the U of A can recruit well enough to put itself in the position to compete for national championships.

Following the OU model, I believe that the U of A is very capable of filling 55 percent of its recruiting class each year with four and five-star recruits and 45 percent with three-star recruits. The three-star recruits won’t be an issue. The Wildcats regularly fill their roster with talented three-star recruits. The challenge is to come up with roughly 10 four and five-star recruits a year.

Arizona is the second fastest growing state in the country. Over the next two decades I believe that the state will produce 7-9 five and four-star recruits a year. If the U of A can nab three or four per year, that’s all it would need from instate.

Southern California is full of top recruits and there’s no way UCLA and USC can take them all, especially as the population continues to increase. Tucson is roughly 400 miles from San Diego and 500 miles from L.A. Look at a map and you will see that Southern California flows into Arizona like a river into an ocean. "He tells me that if I want to stay close to home, Arizona is the place to be." These are the words of four-star recruit, Kemonte Bateman, in an interview with Goazcats last week. Bateman is from L.A. The “he” that Bateman’s referring to is California native, Robert Golden. If Southern California kids want to leave the state, play close to home, and play in a BCS conference, the state of Arizona is their only option. I believe that as the U of A increases its win total and cracks the top-25, it will be able to land at least five recruits a year from California that have earned four or five stars. From 2006-2009, the U of A has averaged 3 four-star recruits a year from California. As the population of California increases, five per year is easily attainable.

If the U of A can land five high ranking recruits from California and three or four from Arizona, that leaves just a couple more to be landed from elsewhere each year. Hawaii has been good to the Wildcats, Nevada is the fastest growing state in the country, and West Texas is within striking distance. Not to mention that while the majority of recruits prefer to stay close to home, others are more than willing to travel. Again, if the U of A wins more games, it should have no problem landing a couple of four-star recruits from outside of Arizona and California.

Finally, the U of A needs to establish itself as the premier college football program in the state of Arizona. Tempe is closer to California and Nevada than Tucson. The Sun Devils are also in the Pac-10 and play in a bigger stadium. In order for the U of A to recruit at the level needed to achieve elite status, it must present a more attractive option for recruits than ASU. This past decade has not been kind to our beloved Wildcats. The kids playing high school football in Arizona this season are accustomed to ASU winning and U of A not. That has to change. The Wildcats need to dominate the Sun Devils head-to-head and put together better seasons overall than their hated rival. Kids have short memories. Having a better record than ASU in ’09 and defeating them for the second straight season would go a long way towards turning the tide and changing perceptions.

In my opinion, here’s what needs to be done for the U of A to recruit well enough to challenge for national championships (in no particular order):

1. Become a perennial top-25 team.
2. Establish itself as the premier college football program in Arizona.
3. Recruit Arizona and California predominately.
4. Take advantage of Nevada’s booming population, as well as recruit-rich Texas. One way to do this is by spreading the Arizona brand through home-and-home series with schools like UNLV, Nevada, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M.
5. Upgrade the stadium and facilities.


If these steps are followed, I see no reason why the University of Arizona, with the right coach in place, cannot recruit well enough to achieve elite status in college football. The next two decades will put the U of A in a much better demographic situation than it has ever been. Again, recruiting alone does not produce national championships. However, a coach has to have easy access to elite talent to even stand a chance. In years past our beloved Wildcats have been limited demographically, due to Tucson’s geographic location. But I truly believe that over the next two decades, Tucson’s location will become a benefit. And the University of Arizona will reap the rewards.

Bear Down! ]]> Damien DeMarco http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=18 http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=17 Tue, 04 Aug 2009 19:31:22 GMT With the college football season upon us, I thought I would take a few minutes to discuss the match-up that I am most looking forward to watching. There are a lot of match-ups that I could list, such as Rob Gronkowski vs. Taylor Mays or Robert Golden vs. Gerell Robinson. However, there is one... With the college football season upon us, I thought I would take a few minutes to discuss the match-up that I am most looking forward to watching. There are a lot of match-ups that I could list, such as Rob Gronkowski vs. Taylor Mays or Robert Golden vs. Gerell Robinson. However, there is one match-up in particular that really has me excited: Arizona’s rushing attack vs. ASU’s defensive front seven.

Much to the dismay of University of Arizona fans, ASU has received more preseason hype than our beloved Wildcats. The main reason for optimism about ASU is due to their much talked about defensive front seven. While I disagree with those analysts who predict ASU to finish above U of A in the Pac-10 standings, I do believe that the Sun Devils have a very good defensive line and linebacking corps. Phil Steele has ASU’s linebackers rated as the top linebacking unit in the conference and its defensive line as the third best defensive line in the conference.

Despite its perception as a pass-happy offense, Arizona rushed more times than it passed last season. Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin combined for over 1,700 yards and 23 touchdowns. Only Oregon returns players with more combined rushing touchdowns than Arizona. The combination of these two quick running backs, a much larger offensive line than in years past, and the solid blocking of the Gronkowski brothers played a pivotal role in the Wildcat’s success this past season.

In last season’s 31-10 Arizona victory (man, that still feels good), ASU managed to hold the Wildcats to 106 yards on 40 carries, giving the U of A an average of just 2.6 yards per carry. So while Arizona won the game, the defensive front seven of ASU did hold the Wildcat rushing attack well below its average in both total yards and yards per carry. So what will happen this season? Who knows? All I know is that when the Wildcats and Sun Devils take the field in Tempe on November 28, there will be some terrific individual match-ups that I am looking forward to:

Mike Diaz vs. Dexter Davis

No one loathes ASU as much as I do, but Dexter Davis is a stud. The only returning college player to record double-digit sacks in each of the previous two seasons poses a serious threat to Arizona’s passing attack. However, his speed and athleticism make him a dual threat as he also has the speed and strength to attack rushers at the line of scrimmage. Enter Mike Diaz. The 6’5”, 315-pound offensive tackle earned rave reviews after filling in at left guard after the UCLA game this past season. He steamrolled defenders on a regular basis and was one of the main reasons for Arizona’s improved rushing attack. This should be a fun one to watch. If Davis gives Diaz any fits, the Gronkowski brothers will gladly lend a hand.

Rob and Chris Gronkowski vs. the ASU linebackers

Having a good number of U of A games on DVR has given me a greater appreciation for the blocking of these two brothers. Each time I re-watch a game, I find myself rewinding it regularly to watch a solid block by Rob or Chris. While both of these brothers are skilled enough to take on defensive lineman, their prey of choice tends to be linebackers. Mike Nixon, Travis Goethel, and the rest of ASU’s linebackers present a formidable challenge. I look forward to watching these Sun Devil linebackers try and deal with the bulked-up boys from Buffalo.

Colin Baxter, Vaughn Dotsy and Conan Amituanai vs. Lawrence Guy and Corey Adams

Lawrence Guy burst onto the college football scene last season as he earned first team freshman All-American honors. At 6’5 and nearly 300 pounds, Guy is a load and big things are expected this season. Corey Adams turned down offers from, among others, national powers USC, Florida, and Ohio State in order to sign with the hometown Devils. All indications are that the highly-touted true freshman will start from day one.

So how does Arizona deal with these two talented defensive linemen? Take two 335-pound behemoths and place them on either side of the team’s most experienced lineman. Vaughn Dotsy is 6’5, 335-pounds while Conan is 6’4”, 335-pounds. That’s big. Colin Baxter, and his 24 career starts, checks in at 6’4” and 300-pounds. I love watching Baxter play because he is not intimidated by anyone. These three will be given the task of roughing up ASU’s young, but talented, defensive linemen. It will be interesting to see how Lawrence Guy and Corey Adams deal with 970 pounds of Wildcat for four quarters.

Nicholas Grigsby, Keola Antolin, and Greg Nwoko vs. the ASU linebackers

I believe that Arizona’s rushing attack will be better than last season’s. The combination of Grigsby and Antolin give Arizona the most dangerous duo of running backs than any school in the conference not named USC or Cal. If Nwoko is as good as advertised then he can give the Wildcats a three-headed rushing attack that combines speed, quickness, and power. ASU’s linebackers are very good. They are also a combination of speed, quickness, and power.

Again, there are many match-ups that I am looking forward to this season. However, the opportunity to watch some tough physical football between two teams that don’t exactly like each other is too good to miss. Set your DVRs boys, the season is coming. ]]> Damien DeMarco http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=17 http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=16 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 19:53:44 GMT This blog was intended to be the second and final part of my analysis of the University of Arizona’s chances to reach elite status in the world of college football. However, there is far too much information to be discussed so this will simply be part two of three. This blog will focus on two... This blog was intended to be the second and final part of my analysis of the University of Arizona’s chances to reach elite status in the world of college football.
However, there is far too much information to be discussed so this will simply be part two of three.

This blog will focus on two things: 1) Where does the U of A get its players from and 2) what are the geographic and demographic advantages and disadvantages of the state of Arizona and its neighbors.

From 2006-2009, Arizona has averaged 22 players per recruiting class. Over these past four years, 48 percent of new Wildcats came from California. Texas was the source of 26 percent of Arizona’s new recruiting classes, while 14 percent came from the state of Arizona itself. The remaining 11 percent of recruits came from five states: Hawaii, Nevada, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Oklahoma. So the U of A’s top three states for recruiting have most recently been California, Texas, and Arizona.

So where do our Wildcats go from here? In future years, will there be sufficient talent close enough to Tucson for the U of A to have a chance to stock its roster with top high school talent? Let’s examine the possibilities state by state.

Arizona
Current Population: 6.5 million
Current Ranking: 14th most populated
BCS Universities: Two (Arizona and ASU)
Number of five and four-star recruits produced from 2006-2009: 18
Future trends: The U.S. Census predicts that Arizona will grow by 109 percent from 2000-2030, making it the 2nd fastest growing state - in terms of percentage - in the country. This significant increase in population will catapult Arizona into the top-10 most populated states in the country by 2030.

Despite the fact that the Tucson-area is growing faster than the average U.S. metropolitan area, the Phoenix-area is growing nearly twice as fast. My third blog on this subject will deal with Arizona vs. ASU in greater detail, but I feel it’s worth mentioning here that the U of A can offer Phoenix-area recruits something that ASU cannot: a chance to get away from home but still be close enough for their friends and family to watch them play.

New Mexico
Current Population: 2 million
Current Ranking: 36th most populated
BCS Universities: None
Number of five and four-star recruits produced from 2006-2009: 1
Future trends: By 2030, New Mexico will be one of six states with 1 of 4 residents at the age of 65 or older.

Despite the fact that the U of A will not find fertile recruiting grounds immediately to its east, I will explain later how the state of New Mexico actually helps Arizona recruit.

Utah
Current Population: 2.75 million
Current Ranking: 34th most populated
BCS Universities: None
Number of five and four-star recruits produced from 2006-2009: 9
Future trends: From 2000-2030, Utah will grow by over 50 percent, making it the fifth fastest growing state by percentage.

Utah does border Arizona but most of the population is up north in the Salt Lake/Provo area, which is roughly 700 miles from Tucson. However, of the nine recruits in recent years that earned a Rivals ranking of five or four stars, five left the state to play college ball. Three of those went to L.A. to play for USC or UCLA. Tucson and L.A. are roughly the same distance from the Salt Lake/Provo area so if the Wildcats have enough to offer, distance should not be much of an issue.

Nevada
Current Population: 2.6 million
Current Ranking: 35th most populated
BCS Universities: None
Number of five and four-star recruits produced from 2006-2009: 7
Future trends: From 2000-2030, Nevada is expected to grow by 114 percent, making it the fastest growing state in the country. Much of the growth is in the southern part of the state, in the Las Vegas area.

Las Vegas is 270 miles from L.A., 305 miles from Tempe, and 410 miles from Tucson. The combination of its exceptional growth, lack of an in-state BCS school, and proximity to nearly half of the schools in the Pac-10 should make Nevada a heavily recruited state over the next two decades. The U of A landed Keola Antolin and Juron Criner from Las Vegas in 2008 and Garic Wharton in 2010. Maintaining a pipeline from Nevada to Tucson would be a wise move for the Wildcats.

California
Current Population: 37 million
Current Ranking: The most populated state
BCS Universities: Four (USC, UCLA, California, and Stanford)
Number of five and four-star recruits produced from 2006-2009: 148
Future trends: From 2000-2030, California is expected to grow by over 12 million residents.

Tucson is within 500 miles of all of Southern California. SoCal (as the kids call it) is home to 65 percent of California’s residents. That’s over 24 million people. There are only two states that border Southern California: Nevada and Arizona. Only Arizona has any BCS schools.

Texas
Current Population: 24 million residents
Current Ranking: 2nd most populated state
BCS Universities: Four (Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and Baylor)
Number of five and four-star recruits produced from 2006-2009: 171
Future trends: From 2000-2030, Texas will be the fourth fastest growing state by percentage, which will give it over 12 million new residents.

Texas is what Arizona most likely will never become: a football crazy state with tens of millions of people. I am not sure if it is in the water or what, but there is a passion for football at all levels in Texas that does not exist in Arizona. However, the U of A is the closest Pac-10 school to Texas (roughly 300 miles from El Paso) and has by far recruited Texas more than any other Pac-10 school. Since 2005, the Wildcats have recruited 33 players from Texas. Stanford has recruited the second most players from Texas in that same time period with just 10. Mike Stoops and much of his staff have ties to Texas but I doubt he nabs as many Texans if he was recruiting from Pullman or Corvallis.

The Significance of Borders
Arizona shares a geographic feature with California, Texas, and Florida: a significant portion of Arizona does not border a U.S. state. Mexico borders Arizona’s entire southern border. California is bordered by the Pacific Ocean to the west and Mexico to the south. Texas borders Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico to the south, while Florida is bordered by oceans to its west, south, and almost its entire eastern border.

When it comes to football recruiting, not bordering another state can be a benefit or a disadvantage, depending on the state. For example, for California, Texas, and Florida it is a great advantage. These states are full of football talent and do not have to worry about the Pacific Ocean, Mexico, the Gulf of Mexico, or the Atlantic Ocean trying to recruit their top high school talent.

Compare that with another state that is full of football recruits: Georgia. This state is also full of talented football players but the University of Georgia and Georgia Tech have to not only compete with each other for the state’s top talent, but have to also worry about Florida, Florida State, South Florida, and Miami from the south; Auburn and Alabama from the west; Clemson and South Carolina from the east; and Tennessee from the north.

Washington is an example of a state that is limited by its location. There have been less five and four-star recruits from Washington in recent years than there have been from Arizona. As opposed to California, Texas, and Florida, the Washington schools must look to its neighbors for recruits instead of relying mostly on homegrown talent, but there are slim pickings in every direction. Washington borders the Pacific Ocean to the west, Canada to the north, Idaho to the east and Oregon to the south. This geographic set-up would be perfect if the state of Washington was loaded with talent, but it is not. There is some talent in Washington but not enough. In order to compete, the Washington schools need to lure recruits from long distance.

Arizona is sitting pretty. As previously mentioned, Mexico is no threat to steal Arizona’s top high school talent. New Mexico, Utah, and Nevada do not have a single BCS school between them, so they are no threat to steal top talent from Arizona. The only state that borders Arizona, that has schools that play in a BCS conference, is California.

My final blog will tie all of these statistics together. The U of A is not situated geographically as well as USC or UCLA, however, I do believe that the geographic challenges which may have hindered recruiting for the past two decades will actually prove to be a benefit over the next twenty years. These demographic benefits, the role that the ASU rivalry plays in recruiting, and my game plan for how the University of Arizona can recruit well enough to reach elite status will all be discussed in my final blog on this subject. ]]> Damien DeMarco http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=16 http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=15 Wed, 22 Jul 2009 04:37:15 GMT Can Arizona ever become an elite college football program? I define an elite program as a perennial top-10 program that wins conference championships regularly and is consistently in the national title hunt. When I think of elite college football programs I think of teams such as USC, Ohio St.,... Can Arizona ever become an elite college football program? I define an elite program as a perennial top-10 program that wins conference championships regularly and is consistently in the national title hunt. When I think of elite college football programs I think of teams such as USC, Ohio St., Oklahoma, Florida, and Texas. Can Arizona ever join that list?

In order for a program to consistently be among the nation’s elite, it needs to rely on factors other than its head coach because coaches come and go. The key to sustained success in college football is recruiting. Simply put, the programs that recruit the best high school players dominate the top-10 and title games. Therefore, I will examine how Arizona is currently recruiting, how elite programs are currently recruiting, and if Arizona can possibly recruit well enough to emerge as a national football power.

After researching this subject, I have determined that one blog is not sufficient to adequately examine this topic. This will be the first of two blogs. It will focus mostly on elite football programs and their recruiting advantages because prior to discussing whether our beloved Wildcats can ever achieve elite status, it would be wise to first focus on those who have already achieved our desired level of success. The second blog will focus on what Arizona has to do to emerge has a perennial top-10 college football program.

Recruiting Data

In preparing for these blogs I studied a Sports Illustrated report on recruiting, and a model developed by three economists to predict where top college football recruits would choose to play. The reports were lengthy but the findings were simple: top recruits want to play in a BCS conference, in a big stadium, in front of family and friends. Surprisingly, for many recruits location is more important than tradition. Of the 44 recruits in Rivals 2010 Top-100 that have already committed, 75 percent have committed to an in-state school. The findings showed teams that recruit at least 50 percent of their players from in-state or within 200 miles, stand the best chance of sustained success.

When it comes to top college football recruits, three states reign supreme: California, Texas, and Florida. Of the 200 recruits that make up the Rivals 2009 and 2010 Top-100, 42 percent are from these three states. From 2006 to 2009, Florida produced a combined 199 four and five star recruits while Texas and California produced 171 and 148 respectively. Not only do these states produce a high number of elite recruits, but the dominating school in each state keeps many of them home. From 2004-2008, 93 percent of the recruits who went to the University of Texas were from the state of Texas. During that same time period USC recruited 72 percent of its players from California while the University of Florida recruited 62 percent of its players from in-state. Is it any wonder that teams such as USC, Texas, and Florida regularly challenge for national championships?

In stark contrast, the state of Arizona has produced nine football prospects which have reached the Rivals Top-100…in the past nine years. Nine in nine years is less than California, Texas, and Florida each have in 2010. Florida actually has twice as many recruits in the Top-100 in 2010 than Arizona has had in the past nine years. From 2006 to 2009, Arizona has produced a total of just 18 four and five and star recruits. From 2004-2008, the University of Arizona has recruited just 12 percent of its players from in-state while ASU recruited 26 percent. The lack of top local high school talent obviously makes the goal of achieving elite status difficult.

Demographics

The states of California, Texas, and Florida show no signs of slowing down. Currently, California is the most populated state in the country with nearly 37 million people. Texas and Florida check in second and fourth respectively. According to the Census Bureau, from 2000 to 2030, nearly 46 percent of the total U.S. population growth will occur in these three states. The only change in the rankings will be that by 2011, Florida is predicted to overtake New York for third.

Higher populations obviously give these states a better opportunity to produce top football recruits. In California, Texas, and Florida, there is, and will continue to be, more than enough talent to go around.

Where does the state of Arizona stand demographically? With such a disparity in the number of homegrown elite recruits, does the University of Arizona even stand a chance to recruit well enough to put itself in a position to challenge for national championships on a regular basis? Despite these numbers, I believe that the Wildcats can reach elite status and my following blog will explain why. ]]> Damien DeMarco http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=15 http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=13 Fri, 10 Jul 2009 16:57:07 GMT Upon being hired, Mike Stoops spoke of making Arizona competitive and having a chance to win every game. This came on the heels of a season in which the Wildcats lost 10 games by an average of 28.8 points, including three games in which they lost by 45 or more. I believe we all remember those dark... Upon being hired, Mike Stoops spoke of making Arizona competitive and having a chance to win every game. This came on the heels of a season in which the Wildcats lost 10 games by an average of 28.8 points, including three games in which they lost by 45 or more. I believe we all remember those dark days so there is no need to reminisce any further. Suffice it to say that Arizona was outmatched in everyway conceivable and rarely even had a chance to win.

When reviewing Arizona’s record last season, the amount of close losses and the lack of close victories stand out. I define “close” as eight or less points. Why eight? It’s because eight points is a one score difference (touchdown & two-point conversion). Now, before I go any further let me state that a loss is a loss. I understand that. Arizona finished 8-5 and that is exactly where they deserved to finished. But when it comes to looking for signs of improvement and analyzing next season’s possibilities, each game is not as simple as a win or a loss. There are a lot less things to fix when a team loses by 3 as opposed to 45.
With that in mind, below are some statistics I dug up from last season (Washington and Washington St. were so bad that it is pointless to include them). I promise that there is a point to these statistics.

In its eight wins, Arizona won by an average of 28.4 points. Their closest victory was by 10 points against BYU. In their 5 Pac-10 victories, the Wildcats won by an average of 24.4 points and their closest Pac-10 victory was 15 points against Cal.

Arizona lost 5 games this past season by an average of 5.6 points. Their most lopsided defeat of the season was a 10-point loss to Oregon. The rest of their losses were by 8, 7, 2 and 1. Arizona’s 4 losses by 8 points or less were the most in the Pac-10. To put that in perspective, it helps to look at the rest of the Pac-10: USC had just the one loss by 6 points; Cal lost games by 13, 14, and 15; Stanford lost 3 games by 21 or more; Oregon St. lost games by 31 and 27; ASU lost three games by 21 or more; Oregon lost to USC by 34; and UCLA lost 6 games by 21 or more, including a 59-0 beat down by BYU.

Arizona and ASU were the only teams in the conference that did not have a close win (8 points or less); USC had 1 (by 7 against Arizona); Cal and UCLA had 2; Oregon and Stanford had 3; Oregon St. had 4. I feel that it is important to include close wins when discussing close losses because they help to paint a better picture. A team that could have won a game it lost by just a few points, could just as easily have lost a game it won by just a few points. Stanford lost 3 close games but it also won 3 close games. Oregon St. lost 2 close games but it won 4 close games. The Beavers actually won 3 games by 3 points or less.

Arizona had 4 close losses and no close wins. These statistics tell me two things: 1) Before Arizona can challenge for the Pac-10 title it must learn how to win the close games, and 2) Arizona was awfully close to finishing with 9 or 10 regular season wins. In fact, in each game that Arizona lost this season, they had a chance to tie or take the lead in the final minutes. No other team in the Pac-10, except USC, can say that.

The Wildcats had a legitimate chance to win every game they played this season. Sure, it would be better to have more wins as opposed to close losses, but this season told me quite a bit about this Mike Stoops coached team: The players were not physically outmatched by anyone, not even USC; despite being pounded at Oregon in the first half they did not give up; Mike Stoops and his coaching staff have finally filled this roster with talent that can compete with everyone in the conference on any given Saturday. Again, it would have been sweeter to have a few more wins and a few less close losses, but this past season still should give Arizona fans plenty to be optimistic about. ]]> Damien DeMarco http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=13 http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=12 Thu, 09 Jul 2009 05:49:08 GMT AFL: Greatest Regular Season Game of the Century (possibly of all time)

Game Report

The St. Kilda Saints and the Geelong Cats net for the first time this year in round 14. This is the first time two undefeated teams had met as late as round 14 in league history.

The hype during the week was almost unbearable, almost on the level of the grand final. One of the AFL's blockbuster rivalries (Collingwood/Essendon) was on the same weekend, and even though it really had more importance as to the makeup of the finals, it was virtually buried.

St. Kilda had the number one defense, Geelong the number one offense. Virtually every statistic that is kept showed Geelong and St. Kilda as number 1 or 2. The bookies had the game as virtually dead even. Both teams were at almost full strength, but both had important players out due to injury.

The game was scheduled for Docklands Stadium which holds 55,000 or so and the AFL sort of half heartedly tried to move it to the Melbourne Cricket Ground which holds 110,000 but couldn't because of signage rights apparently. Docklands Stadium sold out of course, and the odds are that the MCG would have sold out too. Collingwood/Essendon drew 77,700 but they were expecting 90,000.

Hard to believe but for once the game itself exceeded the hype. St. Kilda jumped out to a 5 goal to nil lead (30-0), but then Geelong fought back and tied it up with just under 2 minutes left in the game. The entire game was played at a super high level, desperate defense from both sides, brilliant ball handling, commitment to the contest, fearless play, Grand Final intensity.

Both teams deserved to win (and I say that as a St. Kilda supporter), and with the score tied with just over a minute left it looked like a draw would be a just result. The TV announcers were already starting to discuss the possibility of 2 undefeated teams playing in the Grand Final (in September, still a lot of football to play until then).

With just on a minute left, St. Kilda managed to kick the ball into a contest right in front of goal that looked like Geelong would clear, but Michael Gardiner came from nowhere and marked it, crashing into the defensive pack about a two meters off the ground, knocking out Geelong's Harry Taylor on the way down. The ex-West Coast Eagle bad boy cast-off (binge drinking, running away on foot after crashing his car, involvement with 'underworld' figures, etc) paid back the Saints for giving him a second chance and slotted it through for the win.

So St. Kilda got the win and the points, but nothing was really resolved. Both teams took away lessons for their next anticipated meeting (in the Grand Final).

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Politics: "Ute-gate" backfires on the Liberals

During the 2007 election, soon to be Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was loaned a 'ute' (in this case, not a pickup truck, but a flatbed) to use a a mobile office by a friend that ran a car dealership. Then last year, in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, one of the Government bailout initiatives was to help car dealers survive the credit freeze.

A couple of weeks ago, the opposition party leader Malcolm Turnbull started asking pointed questions about Rudd's car dealer friend, the Ute, and the bailout system. Did the friend get any preferential treatment in accessing the bailout funds?

Summary of the Scandal
The text of the dreaded email

Senate hearings were held and a senior Civil Servant in charge of administering the program in the Treasury Department testified that he received an e-Mail asking for his help in expediting Rudd's friend's application and he couldn't be 100% positive but he remembered it as having come from the Prime Minister's office.

Oh boy, did the excrement hit the fan. Turnbull insisted that both the Prime Minister and the Treasurer must resign. They had been caught out in the most blatant abuse of power in Australian history! (the hyperbole is theirs, not mine). Neither Treasury nor the Prime Minister's office could find any trace of the offending memo so they called in Federal Police to find it.

Eventually it was found on the Civil Servant's home computer, it reputed to be from a political consultant in the Prime Minister's office, and was demonstrably a fake. The political consultant denied any knowledge of it and there has been no indication that the Civil Servant had anything to do with the fake either (at least no publicly).

The email is a fake

It was became obvious that Turnbull had seen the memo and not performed any due diligence to check its authenticity. Such checks would have been trivial because for a start, the Post Code on the letter head contained an Adelaide post code, but the office is in Canberra and does not have an office in Adelaide. Numerous other errors would have been obvious to the most casual review.

So instead of the Liberals getting a major, major political scalp, they sunk to an all time low in the polls. The only reason Turnbull survived is because there is literally no one else in the Liberal pary to take over. "The Chasers War On Everything" team (satiric TV stunt show - look them up on YouTube) tried to give Turnbull a copy of Kevin Rudd's "Hitler Diaries" to help him out. :)

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Gangland Murders: 15 June: Des Moran assassinated.

Melbourne has been watching a gangland war play itself out for the last few years but it looks like it may finally be over. 35 people have been killed, including literally the entire male side of the Moran family. It seems that that was the goal when Carl Williams (currently in jail) started the war in 1999 after being shot by Jason Moran.

Wikipedia article on the Melbourne Gangland Killings.
Wikipedia article on the Moran Family

Judy Moran, the Moran family matriarch and Sister-in-law to Des Moran, and the sister in law of her son Jason Moran (killed in 2003) Suzie Kane were arrested as accessories and Kane's partner Geoffry Armour was charged with murder. There were two gunmen, so more developments are expected. ]]> RichardCranium http://forum.goazcats.com/blog.php?b=12