ESPN: Jennings playing Europe would hurt his draft stock, improve his game

[Cizzel]

There has been a lot of talk about Brandon Jennings threatening to play in Europe rather than the University of Arizona next season. But Jennings' assumption that he be the first American high schooler to skip college to play professionally in Europe before entering the NBA draft is naïve at best.

Jennings, who has yet to academically qualify for college because of his SAT score, is Scouts Inc.'s No. 1-rated high school player in the country. He might be the best high school basketball prospect in the country, but he also has a far more well-rounded offensive game than Derrick Rose, this year's No. 1 draft pick, right now.

Jennings is the prototype of a franchise point guard. He has grown to 6-foot-2, filled out physically and developed a Damon Stoudamire-like pull-up jump shot. Jennings is a far better and more creative passer than Rose, and creates the type of thrilling "ahs" that are usually reserved for the "And-1 Mix Tape" crew. The flaw in Jennings' game is his rapidly improving long-range jumper, which is still streaky.

[+] Enlarge
Brandon Jennings

Joe Murphy/Getty Images

There's no doubt about Brandon Jennings' high-flying ability. But would he benefit more by spending a year in Europe over a year at Arizona?

But Jennings is not ready for the culture shock of playing overseas, for the challenge of playing grown men as opposed to over-matched high schoolers, for the huge drop in the NBA draft stock. Yet that might not be enough to deter him from skipping school. And in the long run, he might end up a lower-rated NBA prospect but a better player and more well-rounded, grounded person.

Be careful what you ask for, Brandon. You just might get it.

While Jennings can cry the NCAA a river and complain that the NBA and its players' association have treated him unfairly, there is no cheating the FIBA litmus test that awaits.

This year, I watched intently as Jennings interacted with his McDonald's All-American teammates for a week in Milwaukee, and it did not seem as though Jennings had matured into a true leader that an NBA team could count on. So if Jennings chooses to pack his bags, passport and old Bobby Brown pictures for his new barber (check out that high fade from the McDonald's game) and go overseas for a year, he might actually hurt his stock by playing a far different game.

If Jennings thinks going overseas will be a year-long vacation in which he will dominate, play just twice a week and ready himself for an early call from David Stern at Madison Square Garden next June, the couple hundred grand in cash he will earn might need to make up for the revenue he'll lose by dropping in the draft if he is not overly impressive in Europe. On the other hand, if Jennings succeeds in Europe, he could emerge as a perfect combination -- the flair of the American game and the fundamental team game that is played outside our borders.

Six facts going against Jennings:

1. The most difficult position to make it as an American in European competition is playmaker, or point guard position, due to the number of quality "local" guards.

2. European coaches despise inexperienced players.

3. American players are expected to not only carry the team, but also to win and play quality defense, more so than their European counterparts.

4. Playmakers in Europe shoot a very high percentage and do not over-handle the ball.

5. While some Europeans contracts are guaranteed, many contracts are abruptly terminated at different points during the season due to poor play or performance.

6. Some European coaches want their point guards to be at least 6-5, if not bigger.

And those are just a few of the obstacles facing Jennings.

He also has no real sense of what it takes to win at a high level, as he often bails out on guarding the ball by going for steals. When scored upon, he always comes back up court and tries to go one-on-one for a bucket. Great moxie over here, not embraced over there.

I don't blame Jennings. He is just a product of playing for one of the most talented AAU programs (SoCal All-Stars) and high school powerhouses (Oak Hill) in the country. While both win games, the emphasis isn't on sets on offense or stops on defense.

Whereas young players are coddled here and pushed to learn in a trial by fire sort of way, most youngsters in Europe sit and earn their minutes and do their work in practice and in friendly games.

Jennings can claim he is going to Europe to get around the NBA's "19-year-old rule" (a player has to be at least 19 years old and one year removed from high school to be eligible for the draft), and it is somewhat true, but remember that the only reason Jennings' academics are in question is because he had to take the SAT a third time. His second SAT score was flagged for an excessive increase from his first SAT score.

While there is no doubt that some team in Europe will take a chance on this high-profile youngster and give him a decent six-figure pay day, playing overseas is not like playing here. There are hooks on the walls for lockers on the road. Smoking is commonplace. Gyms are half-full. And soccer is football, and football is every boy's dream.

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Brandon Jennings

Kelly Kline

Brandon Jennings is a well-rounded offensive star who needs to learn how to run a team.
In Europe, Jennings would have to relearn how to run a team because he has not really played for a team in true competition in the two years since he moved from Los Angeles' Dominguez High School to the loaded Oak Hill Academy in Virginia. Oak Hill had scores of Division I talent, and the Warriors were rarely tested, often rolling over lesser competition. While he might not know or respect some of the veterans in Europe, Lou Bullock (Real Madrid), Zoran Planinic (CSKA), Sarunas Jasikevicius (Panathinaikos) and Morris Finley (Montepaschi Siena) are skilled and experienced guards whose eyes will light up at the thought of a "SLAM" cover boy trying to learn the Euro game.

The idea that every game matters and the win-or-be-cut mentality of FIBA hoops would truly test Jennings' mettle. He has been a pampered superstar for a while now, and because of it, he is also reviled by fellow all-stars and opposing AAU coaches despite his immense talent. But in Italy, Spain, Greece or Russia, pouting gets you nowhere; wins get you paid.

Overseas, Jennings would get real, full-time coaching and real critiques. He would be competing against players who are 25- to 35-years-old and do not care for some youngster coming in to take their salary. Teammates and opponents alike would attack Jennings in the two-a-day practices and the twice-a-week games.

Jennings would be the better for the experience, but it will be far more difficult than he can ever imagine. It is not easy to change your diet, time zones, TV viewing (DVDs and X-Box take over), language and especially your game to fit completely new surroundings. And he would have to do it for a coach that might think he has talent but has not heard of him for the past three years like Arizona's Lute Olson has.

It's not like Jennings was ever planning on going to Arizona to earn a four-year degree. He would have been using the school to get to the NBA as quickly as possible. He is not alone, though he might now become the poster boy for other high school players who want to avoid college basketball and play for pay at an earlier age.

While Jennings might have found a loophole for Renardo Sidney and future young stars who want to educate themselves overseas before jumping into the NBA, Jennings might find out how hard it is to set the mold.

[bhanson]

DeCourcy chimes in:

http://www.lcsun-news.com/sports/ci_9770660

This flight plan isn't the way to the NBA
By Mike DeCourcy/The Sporting News
Article Launched: 07/03/2008 12:00:00 AM MDT



Arizona recruit Brandon Jennings is going to go make a million dollars playing hoops in Europe this winter.

While he is there, he will star opposite Dwayne -- don't call him The Rock -- Johnson in a big-budget action picture and help Luiz Felipe -- don't call him Big Phil -- Scolari coach Chelsea in its quest to win a Champions League title.

I mean, if we're going to dream, why not dream really big?

Jennings and his people are advancing the notion that instead of participating in NCAA basketball as a freshman he might prefer to spend his one year of waiting to enter the NBA draft as a professional player in Europe. That seems pleasant. Europe can be a bit rainy during the winter, but there's still plenty to see and do. European teams have been known to pay in Euros, which lately is not a bad thing.

It's surprising, though, anyone would believe this would become a lucrative endeavor for Jennings. Or that anyone would believe it would be the correct way for him to pursue becoming a coveted selection in the 2009 draft.

The disconnect starts with the notion there would be a huge market in Europe for a player in Jennings' circumstance. His stated intention is to be drafted in 2009. So why would a European team want to


make any sort of investment in him? An agent with extensive experience dealing with European professional teams wouldn't rule out the possibility some rogue owner might take a flier, but he considers it highly unlikely. He explained the money is not as loose for American players as when Danny Ferry was lured to Europe after going No. 2 in the 1989 draft.
"The only guarantee with contracts in Europe," the agent says, "is that you're guaranteed not to get all the money you're expecting."

There also is the fact we're talking about Jennings, not LeBron James or Greg Oden or even O.J. Mayo. Jennings is an appealing prospect for Arizona, but he is not nearly as well-known or established as some of his predecessors. He is a score-first point guard, and European coaches -- who tend to be "play the right way" types in the Larry Brown mold -- are unlikely to be excited about his style.

About the only way this gets moving is if someone with an anti-NCAA, anti-age minimum agenda subsidizes the deal. Which is not out of the question. But getting Jennings on a team and into some games are different issues. Many teams in Europe are loathe to play even the young homegrown talents who are under contract. French big man Alexis Ajinca averaged 11 minutes a game for Hyeres-Toulon this past winter. Turkish center Omer Asik got about 18 minutes a game for Fenerbahce in Euroleague competition.

Even if Jennings were to find an interested team, sign a lucrative deal, navigate cultural and linguistic barriers, crack his team's lineup and excel on the floor -- he's more likely to go 0-for-5 in those pursuits than 5-for-5 -- this still would not be the best avenue for elite prospects to follow because it takes players away from the consciousness of the American sports fan.

NCAA antagonists have convinced a generation of players their time in college basketball is uncompensated, but that's a lie. Beyond the education, living expenses and high-level training provided to Division I basketball players, Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony signed initial contracts with Nike worth a combined $81 million based on the reputations they both gained in one college season. There would be precious little marketing appeal in a player who had gone from Oak Hill Academy to Europe.

The agent speaking about Jennings' situation says that if college were not available to him, his best option would be to make a deal with an agent that would provide for him to work out for a year with an elite trainer such as Chicago's Tim Grover -- somebody NBA folks respect to properly prepare a player to compete in the league.

If Jennings attempts to conquer Europe, chances are good he'll be home shortly after the first jump shot is fired in this insurrection.

[MacKiernan]

This story has taken on a life of it's own in the media. And it doesn't help that Jennings is a media whore and enjoying every minute of it.

[1388Joe]

Originally Posted by Merkin

DeCourcy chimes in:

http://www.lcsun-news.com/sports/ci_9770660

This flight plan isn't the way to the NBA
By Mike DeCourcy/The Sporting News
Article Launched: 07/03/2008 12:00:00 AM MDT



Arizona recruit Brandon Jennings is going to go make a million dollars playing hoops in Europe this winter.

While he is there, he will star opposite Dwayne -- don't call him The Rock -- Johnson in a big-budget action picture and help Luiz Felipe -- don't call him Big Phil -- Scolari coach Chelsea in its quest to win a Champions League title.

I mean, if we're going to dream, why not dream really big?

Jennings and his people are advancing the notion that instead of participating in NCAA basketball as a freshman he might prefer to spend his one year of waiting to enter the NBA draft as a professional player in Europe. That seems pleasant. Europe can be a bit rainy during the winter, but there's still plenty to see and do. European teams have been known to pay in Euros, which lately is not a bad thing.

It's surprising, though, anyone would believe this would become a lucrative endeavor for Jennings. Or that anyone would believe it would be the correct way for him to pursue becoming a coveted selection in the 2009 draft.

The disconnect starts with the notion there would be a huge market in Europe for a player in Jennings' circumstance. His stated intention is to be drafted in 2009. So why would a European team want to


make any sort of investment in him? An agent with extensive experience dealing with European professional teams wouldn't rule out the possibility some rogue owner might take a flier, but he considers it highly unlikely. He explained the money is not as loose for American players as when Danny Ferry was lured to Europe after going No. 2 in the 1989 draft.
"The only guarantee with contracts in Europe," the agent says, "is that you're guaranteed not to get all the money you're expecting."

There also is the fact we're talking about Jennings, not LeBron James or Greg Oden or even O.J. Mayo. Jennings is an appealing prospect for Arizona, but he is not nearly as well-known or established as some of his predecessors. He is a score-first point guard, and European coaches -- who tend to be "play the right way" types in the Larry Brown mold -- are unlikely to be excited about his style.

About the only way this gets moving is if someone with an anti-NCAA, anti-age minimum agenda subsidizes the deal. Which is not out of the question. But getting Jennings on a team and into some games are different issues. Many teams in Europe are loathe to play even the young homegrown talents who are under contract. French big man Alexis Ajinca averaged 11 minutes a game for Hyeres-Toulon this past winter. Turkish center Omer Asik got about 18 minutes a game for Fenerbahce in Euroleague competition.

Even if Jennings were to find an interested team, sign a lucrative deal, navigate cultural and linguistic barriers, crack his team's lineup and excel on the floor -- he's more likely to go 0-for-5 in those pursuits than 5-for-5 -- this still would not be the best avenue for elite prospects to follow because it takes players away from the consciousness of the American sports fan.

NCAA antagonists have convinced a generation of players their time in college basketball is uncompensated, but that's a lie. Beyond the education, living expenses and high-level training provided to Division I basketball players, Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony signed initial contracts with Nike worth a combined $81 million based on the reputations they both gained in one college season. There would be precious little marketing appeal in a player who had gone from Oak Hill Academy to Europe.

The agent speaking about Jennings' situation says that if college were not available to him, his best option would be to make a deal with an agent that would provide for him to work out for a year with an elite trainer such as Chicago's Tim Grover -- somebody NBA folks respect to properly prepare a player to compete in the league.

If Jennings attempts to conquer Europe, chances are good he'll be home shortly after the first jump shot is fired in this insurrection.

Merk this is by far the most realistic and down to earth article I've read since this whole fiasco began. It's about time someone said it like it is. BJ can't afford to give up all the free national TV exposure. It's literally worth millions.

[CatnPhx]

If the kid comes to AZ, he better be the 2nd coming because he sure is causing a lot of ruckus.

[1388Joe]

Originally Posted by CatnPhx

If the kid comes to AZ, he better be the 2nd coming because he sure is causing a lot of ruckus.

Whatever his attitude is when he gets on campus Lute will not make exceptions. He'll put some discipline in the kid. Maybe even learn him how to be a man.

[UA Direct]

He's too good for college. Way better than Carmello Anthony!! He needs to go to Europe, toil away in obscurity without media exposure on a team that won't play him much - unless he commits for at least 3 years, come back without endorsements, and take the NBA by storm!

[bhanson]

http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/daily/sports/90199.php

Rivera: Decision time for Jennings - maybe Saturday
STEVE RIVERA
Tucson Citizen

Did he or didn't he pass his SAT? And will he or won't he attend the University of Arizona?
Those are the questions that could be answered Saturday about Wildcat signee Brandon Jennings, the No. 1 point guard recruit in the nation.
Jennings has publicly said he's up to being a "trendsetter'' by heading to Europe as the first high school player to bypass the NBA's age-restriction rule (have to be at least 19) before being drafted.

That's probably where he's headed if didn't get a high enough score on the SAT. And even if he did, he may head overseas.
Those who know about playing in Europe say: good luck with the decision.
"I'd say to him that if it's really something you want to do, good luck on it,'' said former Arizona player current European player Joseph Blair, who just finished his 11th year overseas.
"I'd love to give him all the advice I can on it, but it's something I think he should pursue with a lot of gusto. I hope it's not Plan B. It should be Plan M or Plan N.''
Blair said he looks at the situation with "skepticism.''
Former UA players Ivan Radenovic, who just finished his first season in Spain, and Corey Williams, who had a long career in Belgium, among other places, agreed with Blair, adding that it's hard to imagine Jennings going in and getting the money that's been bantered about - $500,000 to $800,000 - for only one season.
Jennings would be expected to play just one season at UA or in Europe and then shoot for the 2009 NBA draft.
"Most players who get that type of money have experience - European experience, NBA experience,'' Blair said. "They're not even taking kids out of college and paying them that kind of money. They don't pay on potential in Europe.''

In a recent interview, Williams said most everything is "performance based'' and that the "attention and development you get in college simply isn't there.''
And then there's the physical nature of the game. Blair said the international game is more physical than in the USA.

"You get the crap beat out of you quite often," Blair said. "We'll see how that affects him.''
Blair said he can imagine what will happen when Jennings, a wispy 6-foot-2, 170-pound guard, goes for a drive to the basket with a big man trying to stop him.

"They will go hard at him,'' Blair said, referring to Jennings as an unproven American who is young. "They will foul him hard. When you're some 7-2 Russian guy sitting in the lane and his job is to only foul a guy coming down the lane, we'll see how he handles that.''

Added Williams: "It'll be the biggest mistake he'll ever make. Eighteen-year-old players just aren't ready.''

In a recent interview, Arizona's Lute Olson told the Citizen he wouldn't appeal Jennings' eligibility to the NCAA if the recruit can't raise his test scores.
"It's not a matter of fighting for him (to get in). It's a matter of him qualifying or not," Olson said. "It's the same for everybody in terms of qualifying. We don't worry about things we can't control."

Another possibility is Jennings doesn't qualify and doesn't go to Europe, either. He could hire an agent and spend the time preparing for next year's NBA draft.

[WeezyFcat]

today is the day

[luteformayor2]

Originally Posted by 1388Joe

Whatever his attitude is when he gets on campus Lute will not make exceptions. He'll put some discipline in the kid. Maybe even learn him how to be a man.

You overestimate Lute - maybe Lute circa 1999

[WayneNewton]

Brandon Jennings is the Paris Hilton of (college/high school) basketball.

[bhanson]

Originally Posted by luteformayor2

You overestimate Lute - maybe Lute circa 1999

That's why Lute hired KO last year, and the Dunlap this year. He knows he isn't Lute 1999.

[CatnPhx]

Originally Posted by WayneNewton

Brandon Jennings is the Paris Hilton of (college/high school) basketball.

Amen, brother.

[TucsonDon]

Originally Posted by WayneNewton

Brandon Jennings is the Paris Hilton of (college/high school) basketball.

Yes.

From what I know about this kid all he cares about is the attention. If he wasn't getting this much pub from even the idea of it he wouldn't still be talking about it. The press jumping on this is the only reason it's still an 'option' for him.

Any agent who would let him go to Europe is a complete schmuck. He would get exposed terribly over there, particularly considering the style of play and the need for a mature game in some areas across the pond. He'd be better off sitting out a year than going over there...but I sense he'll get into school and then we can all hold our breaths regarding how badly he may eff up what could be a pretty damn good team next season.

[Winger]

Originally Posted by TucsonDon

we can all hold our breaths regarding how badly he may eff up what could be a pretty damn good team next season.

My opinion is that the Europe thing has always been a publicity stunt (based on legitimate gripes imo), but once the dust settles, should BJ enroll, I wonder a bit what kind of teammate/Wildcat he'll be.

I'll also be very interested to see how well BJ can co-exist with Nic next year, as early reports are that Nic will demand the ball a lot (appropriately imo).

I think Nic can/will play the 2 some if BJ enrolls (particularly to get those open 3 looks), but the question will be what happens when the offense runs through Young Money?

I can also tell you that I ain't the only one concerned ...