Washington

[JimmyPeterson]

- Kenpom prediction: (70) Arizona at (53) Washington - Washington wins 79-73, and Washington winning is 71% likely.
* To note - recent results: Kenpom predicted Cal to beat Arizona 78-74 (Arizona won 76-72); Kenpom also predicted Arizona to beat Stanford 75-67 (Arizona won 76-68)
- Arizona is ranked #52 in the RPI (SOS #9; 1-5 against top 50 RPI) and Washington is ranked #64 (SOS 48; 2-2 against top 50 RPI).
- Arizona is 12-9 (6-3)
- Washington is 14-7 (4-5)

Washington is not a good road team, but that's something that doesn't matter in this game. Washington is playing at home in the friendly confines of Hec. Ed Pavillion, where they tend to get the benefits of a few 'interesting' (to say the least) calls per game. Therefore, I will not focus on Washington road or neutral results.

UW has a 14-1 home record, with 1 loss to the Oregon Ducks. UW has beaten Texas A&M by 9 (but from watching this game, I felt Texas A&M had a great opportunity to win this game until Derrick Roland broke his leg - this really hurt the Texas A&M players, and brought many to tears including head coach Mark Turgeon and best friend Donald Sloan - these two individuals stayed with Roland in the hospital over the Christmas period in Seattle); UW has beaten Cal by 15 (friendly differential, this was a 30 point game); UW has beaten Stanford by 33; Washington State by 28.

I will, however, mention that Arizona did beat Washington by 17, 87-70 in Tucson in January. Momo Jones was terrific in this game with his energy off the bench scoring 13 points in just 12 minutes, and shooting 5-6 from the field. Jamelle Horne was the best player throughout the game scoring 22 points and grabbing 6 rebounds, an efficient night in 31 minutes. Arizona was able to limit Quincy Pondexter's effectiveness, as he scored only 7 points.

Quincy Pondexter (6 foot 6, 215 Senior) averages 20 points and 8 rebounds per game, on an impressive 55% FGs, 42% 3Pts and 84% FTs. Pondexter and Derrick Williams are the only players in conference to be in the top 10 in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage. If Pondexter played all his games at home, I think he would be an All-American. He has recently scored 29, 25, and 27 points in his last 3 conference home games. Pondexter is an emotional player; let' see if Kevin Parrom can get under his skin a little bit. Pondexter recently got into it with Xavier Thames, getting a double-technical during the Washington State game. Pondexter gets to the line a lot, more than 6 times a game. Pondexter is dangerous as he also averages more than 3 offensive rebounds per game because of his athleticism. Pondexter is a smart player, and I won't attribute this to Romar ( his dad Roscoe and uncle Cliff were players for Lute Olson at Long Beach State in the 1970s and taught him everything he knows . Pondexter wanted to play for Arizona, but Arizona received the big commitment from Chase Budinger a few years back now instead. )

Isaiah Thomas (5 foot 8, 185 Sophomore) averages 18 points and 3 assists, but is a streaky player and shoots 41% FGs and 31% 3PTs. Thomas is a 75% FT shooter and gets to the line the most on the Husky team, almost 8 times a game. Thomas's assist-to-turnover ratio is 1-1, 3 assists and 3 turnovers. Thomas has been battling an illness recently. He was horrific in the first half against WSU, but then played fantastic in the second half to win UW the game.

The drop off after these 2 players is significant. Washington relies on different players to step up outside of these two. Venoy Overton (5 foot 11, 185) is next in scoring at 9 points per game, and leads the team with 4 assists per game. Overton is a poor 3 point shooter, and has trouble making shots wide open behind the arc (27%). He is athletic though, and makes up for his lack of shooting as he shoots 44% FGs. Overton averages 2 steals per game, is the most aggressive defender on Washington as he likes to pick up full court on Nic Wise and bump and gride on him all the way down the court (he is a 1 man full court press). Overton is usually called for these fouls away, but not as much at home from my many times watching him. He is likely the most despised player in conference, but he is effective at frustrating opponents and fans alike.

Washington is permiter-oriented. They like to find Scott Suggs (39%; shoots 3 threes per game) or Elston Turner (33%; also shoots 3 threes per game) in the corner for open 3s, as they spread the floor and let Isaiah Thomas/Quincy Pondexter/Venoy Overton/Abdul Gaddy attack from the top of the key and use their dribble penetration to force the wing defenders to sag to the middle of the key. These guys are also dangerous when Washington attacks the offensive boards and finds these two when the defensive team is scrambling for the ball. Abdul Gaddy (6 foot 3, 190) just turned 18 years old and averages 5 points and 3 assists per game. Justin Holiday (6 foot 6, 180 junior) is a defensive stopper and back from injury since the Bay Area weekend.

Inside, Britishman Matthew Bryan-Amaning (6 foot 9, 240 junior) is the most consistent UW player at 7 points and 5 rebounds per game, as well as 1.2 blocks per game. Amaning averages 2 offensive rebounds per game.

The other notable players are Tyrese Breshers (6 foot 7, 255 freshman), who averages 4 points and 3 rebounds per game, along with 1 block, and Darnell Gant (6 foot 8, 225 sophomore), who averages 3 points and 3 rebounds per game at 39%. None of these big men are close to Derrick Williams as a player, although Derrick only scored 12 points in the first meeting.

Both teams are desparate, but UW may be a bit too tough on the road. I hope not, but I think UW will win this game. I would watch out for Gaddy once again, as I bet he gets up most to play Arizona; he played well the first meeting. I hope the defense on Thomas is similar to what it was on Randle (minus the foul on the elbow and Momo's first play) because Thomas is very streaky. Washington is a fiery, physical, and emotional team overall and some bad things can definitely compound quickly for these guys (they can get in foul trouble in a hurry, especally with Overton). I wouldn't be surprised to see Coach Miller get a T in this game either.