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View Poll Results: 2014 Pac-12: How many teams make the NCAAs?
1 0 0%
2 0 0%
3 9 17.31%
4 23 44.23%
5 19 36.54%
6 1 1.92%
7 or more 0 0%
Voters: 52. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-27-2014   #31
R.J. MacReady
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Lunardi has 7 Pac 12 teams in, in his Bracket Math
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Old 01-27-2014   #32
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WTF is bracket math?
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Old 01-27-2014   #33
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Servile and uninformed West Coast writers are part of the Pac's image problem. The Seattle Times:

The Pac-12 is eating its own

Posted by Bud Withers

Parity in Pac-12 basketball is rearing its head, and that may end up to be less than good news for the league’s NCAA-tournament berths, which are important in several ways: To the individual programs, to the national image of the league, and not least, to Pac-12 finances.

You might recall this phenomenon in Pac-12 football, when the overall strength of the conference prevented a second team from going to the last round of Bowl Championship Series games. One of Stanford’s losses was to a Utah team that won two league games, and more devastating, unheralded Arizona whomped Oregon to keep the Ducks out of a possible Sugar Bowl berth.

Now fast-forward to hoops, where this weekend, Oregon and Colorado, two teams that would have been considered shoo-ins for NCAA berths just a couple of weeks ago, are reeling and neither is anything close to an NCAA-tournament certainty. At one time, the Buffs were top-10 RPI material, while Oregon was ranked No. 10 nationally when 13-0.

Bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s latest post on ESPN.com is headlined: “Oregon no lock for NCAA tourney.” You’d figure the Ducks would snap out of a a five-game tailspin Sunday at Washington State, but even at that, Oregon will need to play some defense and find some inside game in the second half of the Pac-12 season to make it.

Then there’s unfortunate Colorado, which lost its best player, Spencer Dinwiddie, to a season-ending knee injury 13 days ago at Washington. Remember, what matters now to the basketball committee is how the Buffs do without Dinwiddie, not before, and so far, the results haven’t been positive. CU was blown out by Arizona State Saturday, completing a lost weekend in the desert to fall to 15-6 and 1-3 without Dinwiddie.

On the other hand, you say, teams like Washington and Arizona State have risen lately. True enough, but there are caveats associated with both. The Huskies (13-8) got precious little done in the pre-conference portion of the schedule, and still have rugged road trips left to the mountain schools and the Oregons. ASU (15-5) is still viable, but even with a weekend sweep of Utah and Colorado, has only two victories against the RPI top 100.

So the Pac-12′s doomsday scenario would put, say, three teams into the NCAA — Arizona, Cal and UCLA — with a lot of the next level tearing each other apart. Not necessarily likely, but possible.

Expect two things with February and March ahead: Some severe campaigning by the league coaches, advocating for the overall prowess of the league, and more importantly, a league tournament in March where some of the second-level teams need wins to keep themselves from the throes of the NIT and CBI.


-------------------------------------

First of all: The Pac-12 is the #3 conference in the country...



While it is obvious why media corporations like Bristol based Disney Sports show little interest in a relatively poorly supported West Coast CBB product, the ignorance and anticipatory obedience displayed by some of our regional outlets is flat out embarrassing.

Conference teams beat each other up in conference play, yes. Happens across the country and comes with a closed system, contrary to out of conference games.
But why do the inevitable consequences spell doom only for the Pac-12, the third-strongest conference in CBB? Why will Oregon's and Colorado's losing streaks lead to a reduction of NCAA tournament berths for the Pac, while we don't hear the same about the Big Ten with its serial losers OSU, Wisconsin and Illinois? In the Big 12, Baylor and Iowa State tanked immediately after the period of hand-picked schedules ended. No problem for the conference. Clemson (RPI #79) and Notre Dame (RPI #91) beating Duke in the fifth-ranked ACC didn't lead to extended discussions about the strength of the conference or diminished NCAA tourney bids respectively. But have Stanford (RPI #53) win against Oregon and Colorado lose to ASU (RPI #50) and the damn Pac-12 needs to be stripped of all but three tournament berths... Bullshít! One team's loss is another team's gain. This would only become a problem if the balance of power within a conference turned completely upside down and landed all teams on the bubble.

But that's not the case in the Pac-12, with current RIPs of...

#2 Arizona
#20 UCLA
#23 Colorado
#40 Oregon
#47 Cal
#50 ASU
#53 Stanford

Why should the #3 conference end up with only three teams in the tournament; who would fill the vacancies? The fourth-, fifth- and sixth-best teams of a seventh-ranked SEC - #57 Missouri, #58 Ole Miss and #65 LSU? Ridiculous.
Face it, the Pac-12 has bounced back and ranks once again among the best conferences in the country. The way the ninth-placed Utes have presented themselves at McKale, they could punch a lot of teams in other power conferences in the mouth.

Whether it is laziness, ignorance or the hope for future employment with above mentioned media corporations will remain the writer's secret, but the Stockholm syndrome within parts of West Coast journalism does our conference a tremendous disservice. College baseball and the corrupted 2013 postseason selection process comes to mind, where the Pac-12, as the best conference in the country, received merely four bids while everybody and their mother from the SEC (9) and the ACC (8) got in. And like the year before, the Pac-12 still walked away with the title. Maybe that's a recipe for basketball, too.
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Old 01-27-2014   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by azgreg View Post
WTF is bracket math?
Its basically Lunardi's breakdown of 1-68. The top 50 include all the at large bids and the Highest Rated conference champions and the remaining 18 are the projected conference champions for the mid-major and lower ranking conferences.
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Old 01-27-2014   #35
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I voted four, although in composing this post, I think 5 is more likely. I think the middle of the road Pac-12 teams could knock each other down in RPI & KenPom to give the committee an excuse to overlook a team or two, but that could work to raise them up as well (it's not just a negative). By my own criteria (synthesizing RPI Top 50 and KenPom Top 50), right now I would have these 5 teams:

UA
UCLA
Cal
Colorado
Oregon

Other Side of The Bubble: Utah, Stanford, ASU, UW

Just for another viewpoint, CBS' Jerry Palm has the Pac-12 with 6 bids as of today (1/27) ...

Quote:
Originally Posted by OSCat View Post
Oregon may have already played themselves out
That would be my concern as well. A five game losing streak is alarming. But only the loss to Oregon St is beyond justification, the other 4 losses were to teams in the RPI Top 70. If those losses were spread out a bit more, it wouldn't look as bad. I'm not sure beating Wazzu by 27 solves much, although 5 of the next 7 at home might.

Quote:
Originally Posted by enfuego View Post
Arizona
Cal
UCLA

If Cal and UCLA stumble, then Arizona and those two go to the NIT.
Moronic.

Quote:
Originally Posted by azgreg View Post
You have the IQ of a powder sugar doughnut.


Quote:
Originally Posted by enfuego View Post
Check the overall and out of conference records of Pac-12 teams. Other than Colorado and Arizona, no other team has a win against a top 25 team.
Overall records? Top 25 teams, as in the voter polls? Are you still living like it's 1988?

Never mind that "Top 25" wins is such a narrow criteria - only 46 teams have a win vs. the RPI Top 25, only 26/46 are .500 or better against RPI Top 25, and 14/46 teams are currently ranked outside the RPI Top 50 - you are factually wrong, as usual.

Pac-12 Teams Records vs. RPI Top 25:

UA 5-0
Utah 1-1
USC 1-4
UW 1-2
ASU 1-3
Colorado 1-3
UCLA-1-2

Quote:
Originally Posted by JMarkJohns View Post
Colorado might get an invite to the play-in, but they are fading. Oregon will right the ship to a degree. Washington has a smidge of life, but is doubtful, while ASU, Utah, Stanford are all circle-jerking the same bubble-bound records.

Gun to my head:

Arizona, UCLA, Cal are locks
Colorado, Oregon are probable
Utah, ASU are possible
Washington, Stanford are thinkable

Big drop off from probable to possible, though.
Even though their RPI is low (#118), I can see Utah sneaking into the probable range ahead of either Oregon or Colorado. Their KenPom is #48, and their only bad loss is to Wazzu. They'll have to finish strong and get some marquee wins, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by EVCat View Post
I voted 5 out of hope. But someone is likely to make a 2nd half move, and if UW matches their first half, they might be that team. Arizona, UCLA, and Cal are the only sure things. I still think Oregon will get it back enough to get in the tournament...a 9-9 conference record and a win in Vegas ought to get them there. After that, I just expect either UW, Stanford, or ASU to put together a good 2nd half and be in a position to play in with a good weekend in Vegas. So I guess my over/under is 4.5.

Of course, Colorado should make it. One through 5, they are better than Arizona. But until the conference allows teams to submit their 2nd half score as a final, the Buffs are NIT bound
4.5 is a good O/U.

No way do I agree that Colorado 1-5 is better than UA.

TJMC = Dinwiddie (Both are equally important to their team's success, and while Dinwiddie might have better pro prospects, that doesn't make him a better college player than TJMC). Also, TJMC >>>>>> Anyone COlorado can trot out now at PG.
Nick >> Booker (Booker is a better 3 point shooter, but that's it)
Gordon >> Anyone Colorado trots out there
Ashley > Xavier Johnson (Ashley is more consistent)
Tarc < Josh Scott (but barely).

Also, RHJ >>> anyone on Colorado's bench.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger View Post
I like RPI of > 40 as a decent decider. By that criteria ....

Arizona 2
Colorado 18
UCLA 25

Then ....

Oregon 40
Cal 42
Stanford 54
ASU 55

Look to be battling for additional spots.

I think UCLA will stay where it is and make it in.

I think CU is going to continue to drop and will be at best bubble.

I think Oregon will continue to drop and will be out.

I think Cal will stay as is or rise and be in.

No clue on Stanford nor ASU, my gut says I will be surprised if either make it.
So you're basically saying 3. I doubt that only the negative scenarios come to fruition.

I like Top 50 for any metric better than Top 40. Usually, anywhere from 10-17 conference champions are in the Top 50. When looking at who will be the 37 at-large bids, I'm not looking for 100% guarantee (which Top 40 doesn't provide either), but a larger likelihood thereof, and the cut off line for 37 at-large bids + 10-16 conference Champions hits between 47-54. Looking back, about 90-95% of the Top 50 in the RPI end up making the dance (meaning 2-5 misses in Top 50), and 84-92% for KenPom (4-8 misses in Top 50) by my recollection.

Quote:
Originally Posted by catgrad97 View Post
Everybody below Arizona and UCLA still has work to do IMHO. Too many valleys, not enough peaks.
I would agree with that, except to point out that with a conference as strong as the Pac-12, there will be many opportunities for those other teams to have some peaks along the way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Salim'sHeadband View Post
I think the only way anyone besides UCLA or Colorado gets in is if they beat us.
Bold. And Daring. I think Cal is looking better than you think, only two bad losses, and some big opportunities at home in their future.

Quote:
Originally Posted by azgreg View Post
Right now Lunardi has 6 teams in:

Arizona (1)
UCLA (7)
California (8)
Colorado (9)
Oregon (10)
Stanford (12)(play in)

And ASSu in the first 4 out group.
How can he be so optimistic about the Pac-12 and still be such a douche?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Katzenfreund View Post
Servile and uninformed West Coast writers are part of the Pac's image problem.

....

But why do the inevitable consequences spell doom only for the Pac-12, the third-strongest conference in CBB?
Good points KF. Withers' piece is one meant to draw a reaction because it only highlights the negative scenarios. It's been an oft repeated theme among those that cover Pac-12 sports for decades, and Withers has been around as long as most of them. I'd blame the lack of sunlight in Seattle, but then that wouldn't explain Greg Hansen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by R.J. MacReady View Post
Its basically Lunardi's breakdown of 1-68. The top 50 include all the at large bids and the Highest Rated conference champions and the remaining 18 are the projected conference champions for the mid-major and lower ranking conferences.
Basically why I look at Top 50 as a cut off.
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