Official Mock Draft Thread (4:15 p.m. Thurs)

[JMarkJohns]

This is the first of my mock drafts.

Ths factors in things how I see them playing out as of now, but things will likely change. I've already got some info that needs to go in the update as of tomorrow morning. I may run it, and then one final updated mock in the afternoon.

My prosepcts lists will follow this tomorrow and will follow this initial post.

If you have comments, make 'em here. Questions, make 'em here. Additional information, ya know the drill. If you have your own, post it!

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1. Portland
Who they should take: Greg Oden
- Why: Because a franshise big man doesn't come around but two or three times a decade. Well, Oden is the second great center since 2000, with Yao being the other. In the previous decade, the two sure fire big men were Shaq and Duncan. Both won Titles. In the 1980's, the three sure fire big men were Olajuwon, Ewing and Robinson. Two of the three won Titles. Seeing the trend?
Who they will take: Oden
- Why: Because they know the value of a great big man, winnging their lone Title with MVP Bill Walton. They have spent a lottery pick on a wing two years straight, so Oden makes sense from a need standpoint.

2. Seattle
Who they should take: Kevin Durant
- Why: Because he's the best all-around offensive player since McGrady. He'll be a dominant offensive force for years, and with added strength, which should come, should be a good force on the boards and is already an instinctive defender.
Who they will take: Durant
- Why: See above...

3. Atlanta
Who they should take: Al Horford
- Why: Because he's the most ready all-around post player in this draft after Oden, has good athleticism, great defensive instincts and adds muscle to a froncourt lacking it.
Who they will take: Horford
- Why: Because they couldn't move this pick for Garnett or Amare.

4. Memphis
Who they should take: Jaokim Noah
- Why: Because they are one of the worst defensive teams in the League. He'll improve their shotblocking and help defense immediately, will contribute on the boards and fits their new up-tempo style of play.
Who they will take: Mike Conley
- Why: That's what I'd like to know. Lowry last year was a very good pick. Yeah, he's got an injury history, so I guess a backup option makes sense, but this is way too high for a backup option. Still, Conley is a talented speedster who showed good ability to control a game, taking over when necessary.

5. Boston
Who they should take: Brandon Wright
- Why: Because he's got tremendous upside, and is a great match to Jefferson and Pekins up front. He'll block shots, roam the paint, improve upon his mid-range game...
Who they will take: Yi Jianlian
- Why: Ainge love him. Word is they loe him a lot. If they keep this pick, I've heard/read that he's the pick. If Seattle acquires the pick, they'll go either Brewer or Green.

6. Milwaukee
Who they should take: Corey Brewer
- Why: Because he's a great defensive player who improves their terrible defense, adds increased size to the perimeter and versatility to the frontcourt as he has the height and fram to add more weight and be a great combofoward.
Who they will take: Corey Brewer
- Why: They are going to put all their FA eggs in one basket and make a run at Billups. SO no guard here. They already have Wright in Villanueva, and with no legit PF or C option left, Brewer is the best fit for the need. Rumors of a trade with Portland abound. if a trade occurs that makes Yi Jianlian available, then they'll take him and force others to trade for him.

7. Minnesota
Who they should take: Depnds on if they trade Garnett
- Why: because without him, Brandon Wright makes a ton of sense. With him, Jeff Green, Julian Wright or Yi Jianlian make better sense.
Who they will take: No telling...
- Why: I'll guess they go boom or bust with Brandon Wright. He's a talent that could be the third best player in the draft. Brewer is an option as well.

8. Charlotte
Who they should take: Nick Young
- Why: Because they need an offensive star. Morrison is quality, but he ain't it. Lewis was their top free agent target, but he's going to Orlando. So Young, the second-best scoring option behind Durant in this draft, makes the most sense.
Who they will take: No freakin' telling.
- Why: ... so I'll guess Noah. This pick has been rumored to five different teams. Don't be surprised if they get involved in the Ray Allen talks.

9. Chicago (From New York)
Who they should take: Julian Wright
- Why: He'll eventually grow into a very solid comboforward, able to create off the dribble and, potentially, in the post. His shot has issues and he tends to force passes, but he's a good prospect, with size and smarts to contribute.
Who they will take: Spencer Hawes
- Why: He's been linked. I can't see him as a Skiles sort of player, but he's talented, but weak, decent athlete, but will get pushed around for years.

10. Sacramento
Who they should take: Jeff Green or Corey Brewer or Brandon Wright
- Why: They are looking at left overs here, and the'll gladly take whichever one is left.
Who they will take: Jeff Green or Corey Brewer or Brandon Wright
- Why: Whichever one is avialable. My guess is it's Green, but there's trade rumors that could send Brewer or Wright this far down.

11. Atlanta (from Indiana)
Who they should take: Acie Law
- Why: Because he's a very good comboguard prospect, capable of developing as a point, but fully able of taking over a game with his slashing and scoring.
Who they will take: Law
- Why: This is the PG the Hawks seemingly want. If they keep the pick, which is likely, then Law goes here. If they trade it, then look for Stuckey or Jianlian if still on the board.

12. Philadelphia
Who they should take: Al Thornton
- Why: Because they need a potential star. Thornton has star potential, although it'll be tough to pass in Jianlian if he's still on the board.
Who they will take: Al Thornton
- Why: Billy Knight needs impact players. His neck is in the noose. Thornton has immediate impact ability, so he's a good choice if Jeff Green is off the board.

13. New Orleans
Who they should take:Nick Young
- Why: Because they need a SG real bad. He's a scorer who'll help Paul out if Peja can't make it back. He's got star potential.
Who they will take: Young
- Why: ... Because he's the best player on the board.

14. Los Angeles C
Who they should take: Javaris Crittenton
- Why: Because with the devastating injury to Livingston, and with Livingston soon becoming eligable for an unlikely contract extension and Cassell getting up there in age, he fills a need.
Who they will take: Crittenton
- Why: They could trade the pick if they think Crittenton could slip. They could use some depth up front as well. Tiago Splitter is an option, same with McRoberts, but I think Crittenton is the pick.

15. Detroit (from Orlando)
Who they should take: Rodney Stuckey
- Why: Billups is a huge question mark. They have no other backup to boot. They need a PG. Maybe they trade for a vet. Maybe they resign. Either way, neither is unlikely to happen until after the draft.
Who they will take: Stuckey
- Why: Even if they resign Billups, He's over 30. Hunter is likely to retire, so this makes sense. McRoberts does as well, but not as much as a PG. There's talk of Marco Bellini as well.

16. Washington
Who they should take: Tiago Splitter
- Why: Because he's big, physical, yet still a good athlete. He's a solid defender with good post moves. He's older, so he'll help immediately, maybe even having a Pau Gasol-type impact, though that's a bit of a stretch. Still, he's one of the more skilled bigs left on the table.
Who they will take: Splitter
- Why: see above

17. New Jersey
Who they should take: Julian Wright
- Why: Talk is the Nets have a legit offer of Jefferson/Krstic for J.O'Neal. If that happens to go through, the'll need a SF and Wright can step right in (no pun intended) and fill Jefferson's lane nicely.
Who they will take: Jason Smith
- Why: Most mocks have him going here. Being so far and having no other info besides my opinion, who am I to argue? On top of that, the Pacers deal is a long shot, so they have to fill a need.

18. Golden State
Who they should take: Julian Wright
- Why: Perfect option for Golden State here. They need a PF/SF to add depth up fron and on the win by replacing Pietrus and Barnes.
Who they will take: Wright
- Why: He's literally perfect for them. I can't beliee I have him slipping this far. He's a talent and should be higher. Maybe as high as #8 to Charlotte. Still, lots of rumors anf rumors of promises have dropped him in my mock.

19. Los Angeles L
Who they should take: Morris Almond
- Why: Kobe needs better shooters. Farmar has potential for the PG spot, but Almond would add a potential double-digit scorer off the bench. Something they lack.
Who they will take: Almond
- Why: He's a smart, crafty shooter who can score and rebound well for his position. Jackson loves smart players who can shoot. With no immediate impact big men left, Almond gets my nod.

20. Miami
Who they should take: Thaddeus Young
- Why: They are getting pretty old. They are losing Posey, and Young has some Posey-esque traits: streaky outside shooter, good athlete, good finisher, not much else. Young adds some excitement off the bench.
Who they will take: Young
- Why: They could reach and go for Williams, but I think they go for Young. Pretty good potential, despite his boom or bust status in my book. Miami needs to start looking toward the future in the next few years.

21. Philadelphia (from Denver)
Who they should take: Rudy Fernandez
- Why: To stockload lottery talent. Strength and contract buyout concerns continue to drop Fernandez. The 76ers aren't in need of him this year, so they can wait to bring him over. He's a legit SG with good all-around skills who could be a great compliment to Iguodala.
Who they will take: Fernandez
- Why: They addressed their forward issue earlier, and with no legit PG options on the board, Fernandez is a great choice. If McRoberts slips, then perhaps they take him, but I don't think that happens.

22. Charlotte (Toronto)
Who they should take: Gabe Pruitt
- Why: Because they took Young eariler and these two play off each other great, and Pruitt has good potential as a comboguard off the bench. They need a PG, as Knight is gone at year's end.
Who they will take: Alando Tucker
- Why: concerns over scoring. They are a pretty bad scoring team, and with Gerald Wallace opting out of his deal, they need depth on the perimeter. He adds a solid scoring option off the bench.

23. New York (from Chicago)
Who they should take: Derrick Byers
- Why: Because they need a SF more than anything. Actually, they need a legit PG more than anything, but that's not getting addressed here.
Who they will take: Byers
- Why: Thomas likes to take no-namers from lesser schools (for the most part). This way when they turn out good, he looks like a genius. Byers has good skills that fit New York's needs. Of course, I've heard they have eyes for Sean Williams as well.

24. Phoenix (from Cleveland)
Who they should take: Sean Williams
- Why: Because he's one of the best shotblockers in this draft. He's tall, has good strength and great athleticism. Still, lack of offensive skills/potential will keep him off here unless Kerr wins out.
Who they will take: McRoberts...
- Why Luck. They like Bellini as well, but with talks of frontcourt movement, they could use some added depth. McRoberts worked out for the Suns twice and fits their system nicely. He won't help them beat the Spurs, but that doesn't seem to be a concern right now.

25. Utah
Who they should take: Sean Williams
- Why: Because Collins was exposed as nothing but seix fouls, Okur can't defend the post, and Boozer is too small to contest Duncan.
Who they will take: Williams
- Why: Because, while a risk, his shotblocking and rebounding potential is something Sloan would love to develop. He may be gone, so if such is the case, they will go win. Tucker, Byers, Afflalo will all get looks.

26. Houston
Who they should take: Glen Davis
- Why: Because he's a brute, but an athletic brute. They don't need wing depth, and Davis can hit the open jumper, post up, box out, rebound and generally just be a great teammate. With Howard gone, they are a bit thin up front.
Who they will take: They trade the pick...
- Why: To Indiana for Ike Diogu. It's been rumored since yesterday and I believe it. It makes tons of sense. Houston needs a bruiser at PF, and Diogu is skilled offensively and on the boards. Indiana is trying to acquire a 1st-rounder, so this fits.

27. Detroit
Who they should take: Marco Bellini
- Why: He's a real skinny uber-talent fro Europe whom they are in love with. If he's here, they snap him up!
Who they will take: Belini
- Why: Seriously, their backcourt at the moment is Hamilton, Hunter and?

28. San Antonio
Who they should take: Reyshawn Terry
- Why: Because he's a great athlete who's capable of defending three positions right now, with an occasional fourth depending on the power forward. He's got great quickness and seems to have some decent smarts. Could be trained to become Bowen's defensive replacement.
Who they will take: Jared Dudley
- Why: He's had several workouts with them and each has been very, very good. They want a combo-forward and he's a good one.

29. Phoenix
Who they should take: Aaron Brooks
- Why: Because they need a PG. They are bringing him back for a third time. That's crazy! They love this kid, and can't risk him being selected early in the second to make their move.
Who they will take: Brooks
- Why: Because he's a big-time scoring PG, who has actual PG ability. He's not a SG in a slight frame ala Barbosa. He's a legit comboguard capable of running an offense at a high level. Maybe even immediately.

30. Philadelphia (from Dallas, via Denver)
Who they should take: Marcus Williams
- Why: Because he's a potential 16-to-20 point ppg scorer. He's got so much potential. I can't believe he's, at the earliest, a 30th pick.
Who they will take: Glenn Davis
- Why: They need PF depth. They took a combo forward early, a SG later, so a natural PF makes sense here. Still, there are many, many teams looking to move up and if the Diogu to Houston trade doesn't go down, that's an option here...

- Notable 2nd-Round Selections -

31. Seattle (from Grizzlies)
Who they take: Reyshawn Terry
35. Seattle
Who they take: They go European here...

Marcus Williams - Trail Blazers #37
Aaron Afflalo - Lakers #40
Gabe Pruitt - San Antonio #33
Ivan Radenovic - Mavericks #50 or #60
Mustafa Shakur - undrafted

[JMarkJohns]

- TOP 5 PURE PG PROSPECTS -
.....(based upon potential).....
1. Mike Conley
2. Javaris Crittenton
3. Ramon Sessions
4. Taurean Green
5. Jared Jordan

- TOP 5 SCORING PG PROSPECTS -
.........(based upon potential).........
1. Acie Law
2. Rodney Stuckey
3. Aaron Brooks
4. Bobby Brown
5. Zabian Dowdell

- TOP 5 COMBOGUARD PROSPECTS -
...........(based upon potential)..........
1. Gabe Pruitt
2. Daequan Cook
3. J.R. Reynolds
4. Ron Lewis
5. Brandon Heath

- TOP 5 SHOOTING GUARD PROSPECTS -
.............(based upon potential).............
1. Nick Young
2. Marcus Williams
3. Morris Almond
4. Aaron Afflalo
5. DJ Strawberry

- TOP 5 SMALL FORWARD PROSPECTS -
............(based upon potential)............
1. Kevin Durant
2. Corey Brewer
3. Jeff Green
4. Derrick Byers
5. Jared Dudley

- TOP 5 COMBO FORWARD PROSPECTS -
.............(based upon potential)............
1. Julian Wright
2. Al Thornton
3. Thaddeus Young
4. Curtis Sumpter
5. Mohamed Abukar

- TOP 5 PERIMETER FORWARD PROSPECTS -
...............(based upon potential)...............
1. Yi Jianlian
2. Brandon Wright
3. Jason Smith
4. Josh McRoberts
5. Ivan Radenovic

- TOP 5 POWER FORWARD PROSPECTS -
.............(based upon potential)............
1. Al Horford
2. Joakim Noah
3. Tiago Splitter
4. Glenn Davis
5. Herbert Hill

- TOP 5 CENTER PROSPECTS -
......(based upon potential)......
1. Greg Oden
2. Spencer Hawes
3. Sean Williams
4. Aaron Gray
5. Darryl Watkins

- TOP 5 EURO WING PROSPECTS -
........(based upon potential).........
1. Rudy Fernandez
2. Marco Belinelli
3. Petteri Koponen
4. Marco Tomas
5. Joao Gomes

- TOP 5 EURO BIG PROSPECTS -
.......(based upon potential).......
1. Kyrylo Fasenko
2. Zoran Erceg
3. Marc Gasol
4. Miroslav Raduljica
5. Stanko Barac

- TOP 20 OVERALL PROSPECTS -
.......(based upon potrential).......
1. Kevin Durant
2. Greg Oden
3. Brandon Wright
4. Nick Young
5. Corey Brewer
6. Al Horford
7. Yi Jianlian
8. Joakim Noah
9. Mike Conley
10. Rudy Fernandez
11. Julian Wright
12. Jeff Green
13. Acie Law
14. Al Thornton
15. Tiago Splitter
16. Javaris Crittenton
17. Morris Almond
18. Rodney Stuckey
19. Marco Bellini
20. Marcus Williams

- TOP 10 IMPACT PLAYERS -
1. Greg Oden
2. Kevin Durant
3. Al Horford
4. Corey Brewer
5. Nick Young
6. Joakim Noah
7. Jeff Green
8. Acie Law
9. Tiago Splitter
10. Al Thornton

[azcat34]

There is no way the Warriors take Josh McRoberts.

[JMarkJohns]

Originally Posted by azcat34

There is no way the Warriors take Josh McRoberts.

Why? Because he went to Duke? He's an athletic big that can hit jumpers and pass the ball. That's worth its weight in gold to Nellie.

We'll see. They need a PF. There aren't many outside the lottery in this draft.

[the real dill]

JMJ, great mock. I agree with most of your takes, except Noah. I'm still shocked about your Noah will give Duncan problems on the other thread. You may be right on Davis to the Rockets, but rather than taking the new Marcus Fizer, who are some other options at the 4? I notice you have Fazekas missing the entire first round. Rockets new GM described Fazekas as "very comparable to Okur." Just curious to hear your thoughts on Fazekas as well as any other 4's they could look for at 26. If you could choose between Davis and McRoberts (for he Rockets lineup) who would you take?


Would love to hear anyone else's opinion as well. I figure at 26, you have about a 20% chance of landing someone who sticks, unless you are the Spurs and dominate draft day regardless of where they pick.

[JMarkJohns]

I don't think Noah can guard Duncan. I said just the opposite of that. I said he can help on Duncan, using his athleticism and help defense to better contest his shots.

Noah is too skinny/weak right now to be a low-post defender.

As for Fazekes, I think he's got a decent shot at sticking, but I don't like his upside for the first round. He'll never be the rebounder Davis could be.

As for the Okur comparison, he's not near as agile as Okur is. He's got a good shot, but can't shoot off the dribble like Okur can, and he's not quick enough down low to rebound as well either.

As for the McRoberts/Davis toss up, for the Rockets, I'd pick Davis. I think he's got a good skill set that fills needs, is pretty damn athletic for his size, and should really compliment Yao down low. McRoberts is Juwan Howard. They just traded him.

I'm only confident in 10 of these picks right now. Again, it's too early and there's too much potential for trade. Plus, there are a lot of really stupid GMs out there.

[the real dill]

Thanks man, can't rep you but it's due. One last one. If you had to choose today between Fazekas and Steve Novak, who would you take. I just have this awful feeling we are going Fazekas or Euro, and I'm dreading we are taking the same player in consecutive years. The Rockets have made a habit of taking a Euro that they know won't sign (biggest cop out ever for a GM IMO), but I'm hoping they take this pick seriously with a brand new front office in place.

Plus, who doesn't want an all Rockets draft talk thread on an Arizona message board?

[JMarkJohns]

Fazekas has similar skill set to Novak, but Novak is quite a bit quicker, so while not as tall, but the skills, more comboforward/perimeter forward, I'd choose Novak.

As for your last question, I can't imagine wo wouldn't want an all Rockets draft talk thread on an Arizona message board!

[Itamicbomb]

Oden has been told he's going #1

[JMarkJohns]

Originally Posted by Itamicbomb

Oden has been told he's going #1

No surprise here...

Maybe here?

Sources said that Hawks general manager Billy Knight is in a dispute with some of the Hawks owners over who to take at No. 3. Knight prefers Florida's Al Horford. Some in the Hawks ownership, including influential owner Michael Gearon Jr., want to draft Yi Jianlian out of China.

Steve Belkin (of the Joe Johnson fiasco fame) vetoed the Hawks plans to try and acquire Amare. His word goes right now.

Suns maintained they never even considered it. That Suns/Hawks/Wolves deal is now officially dead...

"Rejoice therefore!"
- Pistol, "Henry V"

[F Duke]

That's the highest I've seen Nick Young rated JMARK. I really hope the Hawks take Yi. Nothing would make me laugh more. I'm praying the Garnett to Phoenix trade does not go through. That's just not fair to the rest of the league.

[JMarkJohns]

I saw Young rated that high a week or two ago. I know they are high on him, but you never know with Jordan. I figure New Orleans will taqke him if he slips.

A majority of the Hawks owners like Yi. Knight is backed into a corner and has given his "consent" to draft him. Looks like Yi is Atlanta's right now. I can't be happier.

[JMarkJohns]

I'm off to bed. Big day tomorrow, so I'll try and keep everyone informed until zero hour! Not a lot going on right now, so I figure now's the best time to shut down and recharge

[JMarkJohns]

Prospect list is now available...

[smashmode]

So you think Durant long term is the better prospect?